tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-87087083167157921172024-03-12T16:17:24.928-07:00The Coast Nerd GazetteIan Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15302890370852456293noreply@blogger.comBlogger210125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-33091902296818805742023-12-07T11:43:00.000-08:002023-12-07T11:52:00.747-08:00December 27th , 2022: Did sea level rise play a role?<p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV16WMXPgBjMXxFyo7aJRzmkFu-fJI9VsO5_4We-YzZnWf_Qbvj5RIWKAE0OVR711hqDGtwYcoPtNgqDpRZz2gsgi18NX0PAf0WbRz-rqkBWdrJSTz4dpTptdsIaTdnELJvvuPpYhEFaLZMVOBVSZGofTW0tBgPm0cWaxyS0fxrMESeLzq2tFLLPLgjdA/s1024/775c4b0cd17f78d2cc44cf18a813b4773c045479-768x1024_CamanoIsland.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="768" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV16WMXPgBjMXxFyo7aJRzmkFu-fJI9VsO5_4We-YzZnWf_Qbvj5RIWKAE0OVR711hqDGtwYcoPtNgqDpRZz2gsgi18NX0PAf0WbRz-rqkBWdrJSTz4dpTptdsIaTdnELJvvuPpYhEFaLZMVOBVSZGofTW0tBgPm0cWaxyS0fxrMESeLzq2tFLLPLgjdA/s320/775c4b0cd17f78d2cc44cf18a813b4773c045479-768x1024_CamanoIsland.webp" width="240" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Camano Island on December 27th, 2022. Photo courtesy of Joan Schrammeck </td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>The coastal flooding event in Puget Sound on December 27th, 2022 was extreme, and notable for a whole variety of reasons <a href="https://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2023/01/anatomy-of-coastal-storm-december-27th.html">that I explored in this post shortly after the event</a>. I've also finally, after playing with the data for almost a year, convinced myself that this event had a near zero chance of occurring without the sea level rise observed in Puget Sound over the past 100 years or so. This conclusion, if it holds up to scrutiny, is also a big deal, as it could be the first documented evidence of an actual impact of <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=9447130">observed sea level rise</a> in Washington. </p><p>The way that I went about thinking about this was to first generate what is called a return frequency curve, using annual maximum water level observed in Seattle and recorded by the tide gauge in Seattle since its inception in 1898. I focused on Seattle first because it was <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuSNBPPCOz0">impacted by flooding on 27 December 2022</a>, and it has a nice long tide gauge record to support an analysis like this. It is worth noting that I haven't yet repeated this analysis for any of our other tide gauges in Washington, and suspect that the results wouldn't be as clear because of their shorter records. <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/est/curves.shtml?stnid=9447130">NOAA generates return frequencies too</a>, but here is what mine looks like:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMDK4-WYNqGdkQgfpf3SwiApuaRiTfsH7b4Fi7s9lKwSGASLilRKmeTUOMeOMqjiu_JULDGG5wPoL-q9UPy3qHi6ceZdG_uDMs8QwGM4PzkRY1CAcGWhdHYtDBkGC1J01flSTw-BCVMdRqmFqvQiG4gZ09xDssoVAZh8uOBw97e1Sef0_w2mwH2HJ1eoE/s1378/RFC_4.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="748" data-original-width="1378" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMDK4-WYNqGdkQgfpf3SwiApuaRiTfsH7b4Fi7s9lKwSGASLilRKmeTUOMeOMqjiu_JULDGG5wPoL-q9UPy3qHi6ceZdG_uDMs8QwGM4PzkRY1CAcGWhdHYtDBkGC1J01flSTw-BCVMdRqmFqvQiG4gZ09xDssoVAZh8uOBw97e1Sef0_w2mwH2HJ1eoE/s320/RFC_4.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>These curves are useful, as they allow us to use the history of extreme events recorded at tide gauges to analyze the expected frequency and magnitude of extreme events . On the y-axis is the maximum water level elevation, in feet relative to Seattle's Mean Higher High Water, and on the x-axis is years, from 1 to 10,000 years (the scale is logarithmic). We can use statistical models to fit a curve to these data, in this case I used a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generalized_extreme_value_distribution">Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model</a>:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb-juTz0OeZ5_7DfpGPPWJa_vpibiJ3FzuSvO_wbwRdLFVVHWT3txFqjWTbDO1QKABcxFponPYj8DRdkTU4QNBdcwSuOk0V20yAtSAl8PZyoBKlW2Rg0nRMwyJ_OpOmavMvoSe47v0aiul-434YgXWYjUWtZOsB1mcEZxTNM7wyUz2zo3x2G0w-sGMnnU/s1380/RFC_9.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="1380" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb-juTz0OeZ5_7DfpGPPWJa_vpibiJ3FzuSvO_wbwRdLFVVHWT3txFqjWTbDO1QKABcxFponPYj8DRdkTU4QNBdcwSuOk0V20yAtSAl8PZyoBKlW2Rg0nRMwyJ_OpOmavMvoSe47v0aiul-434YgXWYjUWtZOsB1mcEZxTNM7wyUz2zo3x2G0w-sGMnnU/s320/RFC_9.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>The GEV model fit to the observed annual extreme water levels from Seattle suggests that that the event on December 27th, 2022, during which coastal water level in Seattle reached an elevation of almost 4 feet above Mean Higher High Water, has an annual chance of occurrence of about 0.2%, or in other words should be expected to occur about once every 500 years on average. It was an extreme event.<div><br /></div><div>But sea level is also rising in Seattle, and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-01362-7">we know that even small amounts of sea level rise can significantly change the likelihood of these types of extreme events</a>. How did Seattle's history of sea level rise influence the likelihood of the extreme flooding observed on December 27, 2022? another way of putting this is, what would the likelihood of the peak water level from 27 December 2022 have been if there was no sea level rise occurring in Seattle? To try to answer this question I simply removed sea level rise from the record in Seattle (assuming it is a linear rate, <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=9447130">which is what NOAA calculates</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0531-8">but may not be the case</a>), and then re-calculated a return frequency curve (shown below in red):<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA_wTN1DC8noyFIKUOvlSmbdhJTHHPqs0E44HZr9BAztCyApuh1bMSafJnzxcv2f3F_JS7lrPHv-K9VgrB331jplS3LpxD3c8GdoG23DEae6kVLyiQFixR0n1-51zmruuO4joZONDRvcaFvhnAATNOPCzM1TCVd6HwJx0w7GZa0SbUQ4wWEbkXrtfMIAc/s1380/RFC_10.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="1380" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA_wTN1DC8noyFIKUOvlSmbdhJTHHPqs0E44HZr9BAztCyApuh1bMSafJnzxcv2f3F_JS7lrPHv-K9VgrB331jplS3LpxD3c8GdoG23DEae6kVLyiQFixR0n1-51zmruuO4joZONDRvcaFvhnAATNOPCzM1TCVd6HwJx0w7GZa0SbUQ4wWEbkXrtfMIAc/s320/RFC_10.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>and then repeated the process of fitting this set of hypothetical extreme events from Seattle with a new GEV model:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCCVTdXIG313zRPQRRYthOkckU6l294e9xaUq1e-bozzVkgtjKKO_hxKQHj5hYvnd9zPCo5EpGUVl4r34cpABS2GLNaO0lK4vPD3pb4svRQAJrJkKU8p-4_AVwxFrWQ-X0Q7ZtLi2bvNu53dykPiz8IHaNiSseNtZzyu8U9-G6XEiahUOOVK0VH-tZdFY/s1380/RFC_11.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="1380" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCCVTdXIG313zRPQRRYthOkckU6l294e9xaUq1e-bozzVkgtjKKO_hxKQHj5hYvnd9zPCo5EpGUVl4r34cpABS2GLNaO0lK4vPD3pb4svRQAJrJkKU8p-4_AVwxFrWQ-X0Q7ZtLi2bvNu53dykPiz8IHaNiSseNtZzyu8U9-G6XEiahUOOVK0VH-tZdFY/s320/RFC_11.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>So here the impact of sea level rise on the return frequency curves is readily visible. But if we follow the water level of the December 27, 2022 event (the highest black dot in the plot) over to the left to find where it intersects the red curve...we see that it never intersects the red curve. This suggests that, based on the best fit to the data, the extreme water level reached during the December 27th event, at least as recorded in Seattle, would have been improbable in the absence of sea level rise.</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL04B_YuZ9sOhQDF_VXnqvg7MUoV54hyphenhyphengYC6HwTcVgt5cXoHvDFg2tSeyhTXUT0rQ0tsD7AYY-upy-91N1u3A85f0fk09mUgKONOYOhyTPhD2sX2nzrWsqc7CiE1VQ9x0T7oBTzc5smd7zgfDDQJgadqY0XYqC_5PNWL2GCtS00wzdn-GLJt9G2rKDo8w/s1377/RFC_7.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1377" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL04B_YuZ9sOhQDF_VXnqvg7MUoV54hyphenhyphengYC6HwTcVgt5cXoHvDFg2tSeyhTXUT0rQ0tsD7AYY-upy-91N1u3A85f0fk09mUgKONOYOhyTPhD2sX2nzrWsqc7CiE1VQ9x0T7oBTzc5smd7zgfDDQJgadqY0XYqC_5PNWL2GCtS00wzdn-GLJt9G2rKDo8w/s320/RFC_7.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><div><br /></div><div>Now these statistical models are uncertain, because they are built around a very small number of events (they are, after all, extreme), and above I show the 95% confidence intervals (the red dashed lines) around the best fit to the observations (the solid red line). Here the upper confidence bound DOES intersect with the water level elevation reached on December 27, 2022. But even if we assume that the "real" return frequency curve follows that upper confidence limit we find that the event observed on December 27th 2022, with sea level rise removed, has a return frequency of, at best, once in 700 years on average. At the very least it seems safe to conclude that sea level rise that has already occurred in Seattle made the extreme water level reached on December 27th 2022 more likely (a 1-in-700 year event becomes a 1-in-500 year event) than it would have been. </div><div><br /></div><div><i>**I'm not extraordinarily well-versed with extreme value analyses, so I reached out to a colleague for a review (which I don't typically do with these blogs) and wanted to thank that reviewer for their time and contributions. I'm going to keep that person anonymous only to emphasize that any errors of interpretation are mine alone. I also want to emphasize that here I've assumed two things: 1) that sea level rise is the ONLY component of coastal flooding that is changing, which I think is likely the case but I didn't test, and that 2) the rate of sea level rise in Seattle is linear, which I think is a good assumption but could be incorrect.** </i><br /><div><br /></div><div><div><br /><div><br /><p><br /></p><p> </p></div></div></div></div></div></div>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-37106593647722546392023-09-26T15:57:00.004-07:002023-09-26T15:58:25.413-07:00Excuses, excuses<p><br /></p><p>Another large gap in my blog, but I've got an excuse this time - I've been doing a good bit of publishing, and that has taken up whatever bits of time I can find for writing. And I have to say that I'm pretty pleased with what I've been able to be a part of this year, both in terms of the number of manuscripts, but also because of the variety, and a because most are open access. So here is the list thus far:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil4yBEtbjcYqx4UvDYbgDzk9MVT58alS8CV4tLKq0rvCRUSgTknFKiJ9qcA821tzUxQdPUQe1p-pn2hth2QhSJ7NSaNEDO3MxF8ZPahA6yEjbW0fQ2zLvLbR8A8rjoDhreKEwjr_f3964WlsXCMfm3DlogsLgtFCLiEA0u45wTyo9eFx3DZl47Npcc3Ko/s792/Screenshot%202023-09-26%20154106.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="555" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil4yBEtbjcYqx4UvDYbgDzk9MVT58alS8CV4tLKq0rvCRUSgTknFKiJ9qcA821tzUxQdPUQe1p-pn2hth2QhSJ7NSaNEDO3MxF8ZPahA6yEjbW0fQ2zLvLbR8A8rjoDhreKEwjr_f3964WlsXCMfm3DlogsLgtFCLiEA0u45wTyo9eFx3DZl47Npcc3Ko/s320/Screenshot%202023-09-26%20154106.png" width="224" /></a></div><p>1) <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/6/5401">The first paper of the year</a> came out in March, after I wrapped up a >2-year long project coming up with ways to try to measure sea level rise vulnerability in Puget Sound along with colleagues from Coastal Geologic Services. Typically, these kinds of projects end with <a href="https://wacoastalnetwork.com/puget-sound-parcel-scale-sea-level-rise-vulnerability-assessment/">something like a technical report</a> but I was so interested in the results that I really wanted to carry it forward to publication.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirVtXXg0_YHGpZetkvGYlc_3vKPswICSWadl7CfalqvwN7aXyP29E7F7E0TngnlRwAuWjNE7rHN3wIK_J3MjEWnskg62gBv5XNfYxmthlxh8m8FBndYrMNGON3fhPUX0Bix6HzLQKGqi_1dSA3J8mj4PfwQCOl7GHQfZWZPqeYEJDAbtCSgAVU0Q9oFig/s1374/Screenshot%202023-09-26%20152749.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1374" data-original-width="1158" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirVtXXg0_YHGpZetkvGYlc_3vKPswICSWadl7CfalqvwN7aXyP29E7F7E0TngnlRwAuWjNE7rHN3wIK_J3MjEWnskg62gBv5XNfYxmthlxh8m8FBndYrMNGON3fhPUX0Bix6HzLQKGqi_1dSA3J8mj4PfwQCOl7GHQfZWZPqeYEJDAbtCSgAVU0Q9oFig/s320/Screenshot%202023-09-26%20152749.png" width="270" /></a></div>2) The second of the lot, and the only one that is not open access, is the conference paper above (for the <a href="http://coastalsediments.cas.usf.edu/">Coastal Sediments</a> conference), that I wrote along with George Kaminsky from the Washington Department of Ecology, and Adrianne Akmajian from the Makah Tribe. I was pretty excited to get this one out, just because it allowed me to get a bit back into the sort of shoreline dynamics world that I love. This one is NOT open access, but available if you send an email to immiller@uw.edu <p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNtR1jbJwT-hdzDUa2RxG456IFUlcbHJbyRzmrEyDz01LR27O0wRFB88i72Gez-jJbKC0mVC2N8pUNGbltJTIOps-rjEBmnkTXGqWGSHL54G28J9OwLP2eU7Q4itSrWI2zV0FmAE8WjaloJslnWMSsmiMoCz40MjxjYqo-p58Bli6_tguKXLjx5liiYWU/s798/Screenshot%202023-09-26%20154636.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="516" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNtR1jbJwT-hdzDUa2RxG456IFUlcbHJbyRzmrEyDz01LR27O0wRFB88i72Gez-jJbKC0mVC2N8pUNGbltJTIOps-rjEBmnkTXGqWGSHL54G28J9OwLP2eU7Q4itSrWI2zV0FmAE8WjaloJslnWMSsmiMoCz40MjxjYqo-p58Bli6_tguKXLjx5liiYWU/s320/Screenshot%202023-09-26%20154636.png" width="207" /></a></div><p>3) The next three are part of a special issue of <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/research-topics/45067/large-scale-dam-removal-and-ecosystem-restoration#articles">Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution focused on large dam removals</a>, and span a range. The big one for me was the second paper I've written with my dive team collaborators about our long-term investigation of the marine ecosystem in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. This one was definitely my big push for the year, and I am absolutely thrilled that it is out. It is open access, so find it <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1233895/full">here</a>. </p><p>My first paper that I consider "terrestrial" was super fun to be a part of, though my contributions were pretty minor, was about how the vegetation community near the Elwha River mouth changed through dam removal. This one is <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1233903/abstract">accepted but not published </a>as of yet, but should be shortly. </p><p>And the final paper in the special issue was entirely different for me, and also one that I made pretty small contributions to, but I'm proud of none-the-less. It is focused on documenting how we, across the entire Elwha research community, partnered with the community in various investigations. Find it <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1216080/full?&utm_source=Email_to_authors_&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=T1_11.5e1_author&utm_campaign=Email_publication&field=&journalName=Frontiers_in_Ecology_and_Evolution&id=1216080">here</a>.</p><p>4) Will there be one more? I am deep into drafting another paper for <a href="https://seagrant.noaa.gov/Sea-Grant-to-lead-special-issue-of-Oceanography/">a special issue of Oceanography</a>, that will likely come out in 2024...but who knows...maybe we will get it out sooner....</p>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-88341217931650105202023-01-04T11:56:00.006-08:002023-01-06T12:05:28.602-08:00Anatomy of a Coastal Storm: December 27th<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYirhwbgKJnFR7qF1V-qFRUTWqEnaz8oxvmXy4yo3S0-kLKI6npuOoDZTy6q2qBRMOlZZb_FcUA2WWGRKwhJ7AYALrcPU7G7TAnIbclqxAyviBzAC-C7eIMRT4a036RHQrLfOHsUrrozr5-b5zFFp3f8l6s_2NKrCCDp9KCWBTz_g0aQrhYRsn75Y_/s1024/light-house-1024x485_gigharbor.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="1024" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYirhwbgKJnFR7qF1V-qFRUTWqEnaz8oxvmXy4yo3S0-kLKI6npuOoDZTy6q2qBRMOlZZb_FcUA2WWGRKwhJ7AYALrcPU7G7TAnIbclqxAyviBzAC-C7eIMRT4a036RHQrLfOHsUrrozr5-b5zFFp3f8l6s_2NKrCCDp9KCWBTz_g0aQrhYRsn75Y_/s320/light-house-1024x485_gigharbor.webp" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo by David Barker, submitted to the King Tides program via MyCoast, on the morning of December 27th. Gig Harbor area</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Well somehow I went a whole year without a post...not exactly sure what happened to be honest, except that I was very focused this year on a few projects that are now wrapping up. But an event that hit the Washington shoreline in the last week of December was more than enough to snap me out of it. The long and the short of it is that this event broke high water records at all but one of the tide gauges in the Puget Sound basin, some of them set 40 years ago. It was a doozy. <p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHhE-h8cTlWHRtbmKrm6-4ktuBFF7Pc3Gh0jBxZwJ49LSyDTGdO013mDIbV-1SdUEkxSTZkqYSx0ub9Hl8MzPIPH7s-ParAF9OFX1jiGmaY4lcbYD1kxiUBNL3OEWDgJc6g2Ll0oRyD0rfe7i3X9FBsWgS_NhUXYg41CFRlK305m-YLb3b_gkWS5It/s1024/775c4b0cd17f78d2cc44cf18a813b4773c045479-768x1024_CamanoIsland.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="768" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHhE-h8cTlWHRtbmKrm6-4ktuBFF7Pc3Gh0jBxZwJ49LSyDTGdO013mDIbV-1SdUEkxSTZkqYSx0ub9Hl8MzPIPH7s-ParAF9OFX1jiGmaY4lcbYD1kxiUBNL3OEWDgJc6g2Ll0oRyD0rfe7i3X9FBsWgS_NhUXYg41CFRlK305m-YLb3b_gkWS5It/s320/775c4b0cd17f78d2cc44cf18a813b4773c045479-768x1024_CamanoIsland.webp" width="240" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo by Joan Schrammeck, submitted to the King Tides program via MyCoast, on the morning of December 27th. Camano Island.<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Most of the record-breaking for this event happened in the Salish Sea, and really in the Puget Sound basin, even though it was no walk in the park for Pacific Coast shorelines either. The photo below, for example, was taken at the trailhead on Rialto Beach in Olympic National Park on December 26th. The crest of the berm here is at an elevation of roughly 18 feet above MLLW, and if the water pushes much higher under the influence of tides, surge or wave run-up it spills down into the parking lot just behind. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi08BldkcA0xyfjnFMNsAGfaeR3lmYFCJ3oHWx7QZgtiZ_QC6d6XzjX-E5V_ND8EGj4SFtHkRSMeDWqaRdvJ58Scd3rUDqnoPFEfKWoY_1kmoeWZ5-HHMJfw3sCF1WXATdv8-RFLUz2fSWXXrlUxXfsuQAOh1wRpQ53dny_apzCF87DvRrn4R-_w4j5/s2048/322378243_833740367730525_4660815564950415004_n.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi08BldkcA0xyfjnFMNsAGfaeR3lmYFCJ3oHWx7QZgtiZ_QC6d6XzjX-E5V_ND8EGj4SFtHkRSMeDWqaRdvJ58Scd3rUDqnoPFEfKWoY_1kmoeWZ5-HHMJfw3sCF1WXATdv8-RFLUz2fSWXXrlUxXfsuQAOh1wRpQ53dny_apzCF87DvRrn4R-_w4j5/s320/322378243_833740367730525_4660815564950415004_n.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo by Kim Sager-Fradkin, posted here with permission. Rialto Beach, Olympic National Park, December 26th. </td></tr></tbody></table><p>But back to the Puget Sound basin, and here are the breakdowns of coastal water level records for the five tide gauges within the Puget Sound basin that set records during the event, specifically on the morning of December 27th, from north to south:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhohhY394TB-Ed1IAFFDOvozL_jb_KAQ3gkcFPqhvAWYGmQOoWBGoKriV-O6xXqd9Y-9r7GRzoA8Owf9nwyhZSsmkd96_QM7_Qn55c-Mkznpb6qfTAQkP2aeLrPduMCeARb33l_S3z_oSiejyCUvYYj5-XXmhq_FzpjgbPRDj1uaTVdvJ8BSVZzG_va" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="475" data-original-width="1859" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhohhY394TB-Ed1IAFFDOvozL_jb_KAQ3gkcFPqhvAWYGmQOoWBGoKriV-O6xXqd9Y-9r7GRzoA8Owf9nwyhZSsmkd96_QM7_Qn55c-Mkznpb6qfTAQkP2aeLrPduMCeARb33l_S3z_oSiejyCUvYYj5-XXmhq_FzpjgbPRDj1uaTVdvJ8BSVZzG_va=w493-h126" width="493" /></a></div><br />A few things of note here. First, the max water levels recorded in the table above are unverified as of yet, so may change. The Bremerton tide gauge is new, so not a surprise that a record was set there, but records were absolutely shattered in both Friday Harbor and Seattle, where tide gauges have been recording water level for 89 and 125 years, respectively. If the water levels are verified as they are reported in the table above, then Seattle's water level during this event was a full 7 inches above the record set just last year. To try to put that into context, that record was set last year on January 7th, 2022, by just barely exceeding the previous record (that one set in 1977) by less than half an inch. <div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2mIeYsuHgSk" width="320" youtube-src-id="2mIeYsuHgSk"></iframe></div><br /><div>Another surprise for me is just how wide-ranging this event was spatially...to have records set at tide stations in north and south Puget Sound on the same tide is notable to me. The various photos, and the astonishing video posted above, from the Point No Point area on the northern Kitsap Peninsula also illustrate this - they are coming in from all over Puget Sound.</div><div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP9TSeSlXfo2AcZSObZh8SJ9iaMpKMcb2j2-sU1ktFa4hS4JJMM-GLvcQtrWwYzT-5Hl25Eo7QbdsfQricCsBh7AnfezlMyOylKfoFwyg5SmoslLsVd8ONkaarDADOvIAf25zIhiqiPxS65JfIsJKWpAB7WW0qy3aQb3AO-QxACfJ2YvCscy-M1ktx/s5760/Tidegauge_data.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2893" data-original-width="5760" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP9TSeSlXfo2AcZSObZh8SJ9iaMpKMcb2j2-sU1ktFa4hS4JJMM-GLvcQtrWwYzT-5Hl25Eo7QbdsfQricCsBh7AnfezlMyOylKfoFwyg5SmoslLsVd8ONkaarDADOvIAf25zIhiqiPxS65JfIsJKWpAB7WW0qy3aQb3AO-QxACfJ2YvCscy-M1ktx/w431-h217/Tidegauge_data.jpg" width="431" /></a></div>What made it happen? The most obvious answer is that we rolled snake eyes in the annual game of chance that we play along the shoreline. The plot above is of water level (top panel), pressure (middle panel) and the "non-tidal residual" (storm surge, or the difference between the predicted and measured water level) for both coastal (left column) and Puget Sound (right panel) tide gauges. Essentially a high astronomical tide coincided with the peak of the low pressure passing through the area on December 27th, and that low pressure drove a very large (for our area) non-tidal residual that peaked at exactly the same time as the high tide. That same "perfect storm" didn't happen on the coast. Instead, the peak of the low pressure and non-tidal residual coincided with a falling tide, so while water levels were very high, they didn't shatter records. <div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPkQ7JcV7QJ9Yyc0aLqaXRlkGdnjUWelCPkQN1MoYEjgqnxYwmlcaaV3c4Tgw5xzboSyRoA0af_6FDY9azSAsdeaDtIgefittj8-EN7JZWqNHEz2Dj7U5FWBiK0OxCnjsLg7v4VI-CGiYbpMuPQOdUarJ25POAzJxb9G04PtIZCzSua9oc-4bFJRy1/s5760/FridayHarbor_LunarNodal.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2893" data-original-width="5760" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPkQ7JcV7QJ9Yyc0aLqaXRlkGdnjUWelCPkQN1MoYEjgqnxYwmlcaaV3c4Tgw5xzboSyRoA0af_6FDY9azSAsdeaDtIgefittj8-EN7JZWqNHEz2Dj7U5FWBiK0OxCnjsLg7v4VI-CGiYbpMuPQOdUarJ25POAzJxb9G04PtIZCzSua9oc-4bFJRy1/w407-h205/FridayHarbor_LunarNodal.jpg" width="407" /></a></div>But there are at least two other likely contributors that I'm not prepared to really rigorously attribute, but almost certainly played some role in driving water to record heights on December 27th. The first is sea level rise. At most of the locations in the table above there <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/">is a documented relative sea level rise trend</a>. While the rate associated with that trend vary across those locations, in general they equate to something along the lines of a few inches over the four decades that have passed since many of our previous coastal water level records were set during the 1982-1983 El Nino winter. These few inches didn't "cause" this event, but they did contribute, and this on-going sea level rise makes it very likely that the records set in this December 27 event will be broken again. The second is the lunar nodal cycle, which is illustrated in the plot above this paragraph and was <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/13/us/moon-wobble-coastal-flooding-scn-trnd/index.html">the subject of some media reporting</a> last year. This astronomical cycle operates over a ~19 year period, and influences the range of the tides, or the difference between the average high and low tides. In other words, at the peak of this cycle, on average, high tides are a bit higher, and low tides are a bit lower. The data I show above are from the Friday Harbor tide gauge, and what I've done here is to average all of the highest tides for each year going back to the 1960's (to capture a few of these cycles)...and during the peak of the cycle the high tide is, on average, about 6-7 inches higher than it is during the bottom of the cycle. And we are, as you can see, heading towards a peak in this cycle. Again, this didn't cause this event, but may have contributed a bit to it. <br /><div><br /><p><br /></p></div></div>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-20037282906174021232021-12-22T10:05:00.000-08:002021-12-22T10:05:23.183-08:00Looking back to understand how communities respond to sea level rise<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiDkviUFwxMAO-Rs97Ul06KTNXy_D7cZd1dncOnOzN1OsrI8Mmu3dSwhCEjK97arwXYRTwEVbQqwmYMyf8vbkJBSLtQmpcVDnf7RxaAwmPRIDIR0bjGJJ50yKWOt3R5EBsl-LR2yYGJcfOT96kpRko34_vm0ibTfYiGg8y_-Jrnnepk9zIQcuifp6K4=s2048" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiDkviUFwxMAO-Rs97Ul06KTNXy_D7cZd1dncOnOzN1OsrI8Mmu3dSwhCEjK97arwXYRTwEVbQqwmYMyf8vbkJBSLtQmpcVDnf7RxaAwmPRIDIR0bjGJJ50yKWOt3R5EBsl-LR2yYGJcfOT96kpRko34_vm0ibTfYiGg8y_-Jrnnepk9zIQcuifp6K4=s320" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo of coastal flooding on Camano Island by Joan Schrammeck</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>
In the sea level rise planning world we do a good bit of fretting about what sort of responses we might expect from the human communities along the shoreline, experiencing impacts associated with sea level rise. We often emphasize that there is no precedent for understanding how human communities will respond, given that the sea level change we are expecting is, itself, unprecedented. But this, of course, is not true. Sea level HAS risen during the Holocene:</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj9ZjS6ypEwC1TYolw4jyL-4hCy3dmlmSEh49fVrqIJY1nLyh-boANqnEgCmIiAskYbpf-85KIkScNBIwe4UjnxHTVsTYDBnEIdjn09t8p4IC7IiDyEPAOHgGlWzZ4Q_qYvpiWWKiREp5HTWHxvhonni77rkBq3Q8h6CRMHlQbsSeZWZrwRh8giRTjh=s537" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="537" data-original-width="507" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj9ZjS6ypEwC1TYolw4jyL-4hCy3dmlmSEh49fVrqIJY1nLyh-boANqnEgCmIiAskYbpf-85KIkScNBIwe4UjnxHTVsTYDBnEIdjn09t8p4IC7IiDyEPAOHgGlWzZ4Q_qYvpiWWKiREp5HTWHxvhonni77rkBq3Q8h6CRMHlQbsSeZWZrwRh8giRTjh=s320" width="302" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Estimated sea level curves for the past 15,000 years for the Strait of Juan de Fuca and globally. From <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2011/5120/pdf/sir20115120_ch3.pdf">here</a>.</td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div>during time periods when the human population was also increasing, and even when humanity was beginning to settle into communities:</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgTxJ5-eGmvUZmdKp-EezB5i475Gh9DXHiwwSYniYV2VR4dSppqxLD-blYjRknd06zDqG177LB960eaw_5ru9emYAePeh1jFuLRJUCMspjF8BVIJiBo64Jw5GFdCGj_0Qmm_h2B7w446vkxwp8JOteuIF5RfusMqmm4b2X0RbTkPhFHDdronbZ3Z9Sy=s790" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="481" data-original-width="790" height="195" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgTxJ5-eGmvUZmdKp-EezB5i475Gh9DXHiwwSYniYV2VR4dSppqxLD-blYjRknd06zDqG177LB960eaw_5ru9emYAePeh1jFuLRJUCMspjF8BVIJiBo64Jw5GFdCGj_0Qmm_h2B7w446vkxwp8JOteuIF5RfusMqmm4b2X0RbTkPhFHDdronbZ3Z9Sy=s320" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Estimated global population over the last 12,000 years. From <a href="https://pages.vassar.edu/realarchaeology/2014/09/21/the-ethics-of-population-and-society/">here</a>. </td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>So it is perhaps not at all a stretch to imagine that there are some templates out there for understanding how people may have responded. Indeed, its also not a stretch to imagine that the earliest occupants of the Olympic Peninsula observed and experienced sea level change, <a href="https://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2011/10/before-clovis.html">something i've mused on in the past</a>, though the traces of those people on the landscape are few and far between. A few more detailed examples are starting to emerge, though, that perhaps point to a variety of responses, including one just out of <a href="https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm21/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/810519">last week's 2021 AGU meeting</a>. <a href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/vikings-greenland-rising-sea-level-climate">In this case</a> a fascinating bit of modeling examining how local sea level in Greenland probably responded to the advance of the Greenland ice sheet during the Little Ice Age suggests that sea level rose quite dramatically in places colonized by Icelanders, and may help to explain the sudden departure of those people back to Iceland. So, perhaps, an example from the past of one of the <a href="https://www.acapsj.org/staff-blog/2019/5/13/protect-accommodate-retreat">three big strategies</a>: retreat. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjWr73-KC7xtZDXP7bMrpFRSLT06zQd9NvPOJch_lbPSB6LrXZ-Qpsyf-o-2BDgO_GrZCjLHr_CKoyPZO0tjEOguH7SIXRd-ZzESfsZyLduiG0cusHZoP3U8lrsuD8z47wfFvl6Dai4XNekQ-0_3C6G0sM_8HN5vno14Zt7YZc3dtPZ85t87kPWMhbN=s293" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="243" data-original-width="293" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjWr73-KC7xtZDXP7bMrpFRSLT06zQd9NvPOJch_lbPSB6LrXZ-Qpsyf-o-2BDgO_GrZCjLHr_CKoyPZO0tjEOguH7SIXRd-ZzESfsZyLduiG0cusHZoP3U8lrsuD8z47wfFvl6Dai4XNekQ-0_3C6G0sM_8HN5vno14Zt7YZc3dtPZ85t87kPWMhbN" width="293" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A photo, <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0222560">from Galili et al.</a>, showing the remnants of a submerged, 7000 year old sea wall off of the coast of present-day Israel.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>In 2019 I was a bit obsessed with another <a href="https://thesciencebreaker.org/breaks/earth-space/a-prehistoric-seawall-to-combat-mediterranean-sea-level-rise#:~:text=A%20study%20recently%20published%20by%20us%20in%20the,eventually%2C%20they%20were%20forced%20to%20abandon%20their%20home.">widely-reported paper</a>, published by a team from Israel, describing the remnants of a 7000 year old seawall that now sits under about 20 feet of water. The authors presume that this is one of the earliest known examples of another of the big three strategies: protect. In this case, presumably, the approach was ultimately unsuccessful.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /><div><br /></div></div>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-44032809657293900832021-11-30T11:34:00.001-08:002021-11-30T11:34:20.358-08:00Over a decade of Elwha grain size images<p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjFaERHCMaURNyWTxZWzjYkK8SKpdJd5FIDencuy6L_4QPKekGClYJjP_rLHLnx7A94V8c5v5GCE_zWQl6IyWgR-bbDlZHVqyUhr1GLzAlKD0Kqz7FQS2uAcqRk_19rOrLEtlh30f1aQqShaVbyzNVvwuHUGh1PlUdnJxqdvZkuuxnwylffDl502tC1=s2048" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjFaERHCMaURNyWTxZWzjYkK8SKpdJd5FIDencuy6L_4QPKekGClYJjP_rLHLnx7A94V8c5v5GCE_zWQl6IyWgR-bbDlZHVqyUhr1GLzAlKD0Kqz7FQS2uAcqRk_19rOrLEtlh30f1aQqShaVbyzNVvwuHUGh1PlUdnJxqdvZkuuxnwylffDl502tC1=s320" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A grain size image collected on 23 November 2011, from <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/pfhs77BbSEnmDb2v8">about here </a>on the Elwha River delta, at an elevation of 2.5 m MLLW</td></tr></tbody></table></p><p>Over the past few weeks I've been spending unseemly amounts of time sorting and curating approximately 13000 grain size images, like the one shown above, collected over the past 13 years on the Elwha River delta. Once I can get them organized and named, the idea is that they will be run through a classification algorithm developed by <a href="https://www.mardascience.com/docs/intro#dr-dan-buscombe">Dan Buscombe</a>, and we will have in our hands one of the most comprehensive beach grain size data-sets ever assembled. The idea is to evaluate how grain size on the beach changed before, during and after dam removal dumped thousands of tonnes of dam-trapped sediment at the river mouth. We've published the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-50387-7#:~:text=The%20removal%20of%20the%20Elwha,1).">papers that describe the topographic change</a> associated with that sediment, and we know that <a href="http://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2018/06/elwha-update.html">beach substrates fundamentally changed</a> because of dam removal. As an example, the grain size photo collected at the site of the photo at top just last month (10 years on), looks like this:</p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg8OS3FsLemuNrE-zW1qxc2Hy814I9ff_ReRiwyLCklN4o1Vyh6-ZEdBCTYXCSl3LxwHGBLT7N8cvW3tlwx3TLV2Uo3PKlpcF9x3GWf8AQc0w2knJHCisvkCLbg5bctVrHmdbRliSx99iuiVgoA0HUOMLv1F4VfZTHMqRXc0_ZsBADF9TUSYiWLNBTZ=s2048" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg8OS3FsLemuNrE-zW1qxc2Hy814I9ff_ReRiwyLCklN4o1Vyh6-ZEdBCTYXCSl3LxwHGBLT7N8cvW3tlwx3TLV2Uo3PKlpcF9x3GWf8AQc0w2knJHCisvkCLbg5bctVrHmdbRliSx99iuiVgoA0HUOMLv1F4VfZTHMqRXc0_ZsBADF9TUSYiWLNBTZ=s320" width="320" /></a><br /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Grain size image collected on 4 November 2021, from <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/pfhs77BbSEnmDb2v8">about here</a> on the Elwha River delta, at an elevation of 2.5 m MLLW</td></tr></tbody></table></p><p>But what we haven't yet done, outside of an <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169555X15000148?via%3Dihub">early and middling effort in this paper</a>, is quantified the grain sizes from the photos (which you can do <a href="https://acwi.gov/sos/pubs/2ndJFIC/Contents/10A_Buscombe_03_15_10%20final_paper.pdf">using a variety of digital grain size techniques</a>), and really analyzed the data quantitatively through time. Doing so will allow us to see new patterns, and hopefully connect the grain size changes to topographic change, river sediment delivery, and possibly oceanographic processes (i.e. waves and tides). </p><p>13,000 images...that is insane to think about, and represents a LOT of my time over the past 13 years. What does that look like? Mapping the photos doesn't really do it justice, as they are collected on transects...so they sort of stack on top of each through time...but there is a go:</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgFb1imppOPAis5gxnH84otbHO0-CRgbSb6di0fGHJJZX3ZgBS78i3RcmtNtDSK5EWHjMj0lFH2rUA87gQHdBXbWPTQY2lxXEwo3npccqojoHzeVJTT6w_3wV-EPrtBmLRhRm89CozmzGTphK1petldaThQR9vSEnpYbouIiNu8Pe9E2ImJVe-Gb3Dp=s1650" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1275" data-original-width="1650" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgFb1imppOPAis5gxnH84otbHO0-CRgbSb6di0fGHJJZX3ZgBS78i3RcmtNtDSK5EWHjMj0lFH2rUA87gQHdBXbWPTQY2lxXEwo3npccqojoHzeVJTT6w_3wV-EPrtBmLRhRm89CozmzGTphK1petldaThQR9vSEnpYbouIiNu8Pe9E2ImJVe-Gb3Dp=s320" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Recent aerial image of the Elwha River delta, overlaid with locations of photos collected during ~50 grain size surveys over 10 years. Each color represents a different day. </td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-75899707015337054772021-10-06T10:33:00.006-07:002021-10-06T10:40:35.697-07:00Kelp growing on tubeworms<p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhdcvUnk2d24OsKS-nCdFeBVVMgi20KNscn03ieqNuSYQYTDTtW981qDkSyZIEDM6ZZIc4p20FsJuParJf6xqcBmZ2ETGoXaIoyzFzpRdsOLiiwpK3EluVMewnEfZBw45f-vcPHPNEKyQUOu1TnQhEoK7Oo-CRtABPxonDmkH3roH2NVXhAfAVqDbIg=s2048" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhdcvUnk2d24OsKS-nCdFeBVVMgi20KNscn03ieqNuSYQYTDTtW981qDkSyZIEDM6ZZIc4p20FsJuParJf6xqcBmZ2ETGoXaIoyzFzpRdsOLiiwpK3EluVMewnEfZBw45f-vcPHPNEKyQUOu1TnQhEoK7Oo-CRtABPxonDmkH3roH2NVXhAfAVqDbIg=s320" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Steve Rubin of the USGS collecting data while buried in kelp fronds. 29 August 2021 photo by Ian Miller</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>I had the opportunity to once more <a href="https://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2020/05/dive-below-surface-near-elwha-river.html">join the Elwha Interagency Dive Team</a> this summer, suiting up, as I have for the last 13 years, to survey sub-tidal <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/figure/image?size=large&id=10.1371/journal.pone.0187742.g001">sites scattered along the central Strait of Juan de Fuca</a>. I've <a href="https://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2019/08/sea-star-wasting-disease-seems-to-be.html">posted frequently in the past</a> about these surveys, and what we see each summer. I wanted to focus this year on an interesting phenomenon that I haven't really seen described well elsewhere - kelp growing on tubeworms. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg_vD_9XUF2kPDWcgU2el_vP6NunQGad91FbjPD4eAqYcEMzaHn-joNFCreI2iE-4fy1k94dOdOhe079E86KnstSW0BWcxjcqqtSihOFXrbnSMsFEcsfaBKXlBdShhijMHZU4SpZQOs1xXSXM-uo-bPjL0S7NQoVevr7T6Po0cUI7C2n5y-smGrXrr_=s2048" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg_vD_9XUF2kPDWcgU2el_vP6NunQGad91FbjPD4eAqYcEMzaHn-joNFCreI2iE-4fy1k94dOdOhe079E86KnstSW0BWcxjcqqtSihOFXrbnSMsFEcsfaBKXlBdShhijMHZU4SpZQOs1xXSXM-uo-bPjL0S7NQoVevr7T6Po0cUI7C2n5y-smGrXrr_=s320" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Bull kelp fluttering in the current near the Elwha River mouth. 28 August 2021 photo by Ian Miller</td></tr></tbody></table><p>First off, kelps were <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/figure/image?size=large&id=10.1371/journal.pone.0187742.g005">heavily impacted during removal of the Elwha dams</a>, primarily due to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12237-019-00602-5">reduced light as sediment laden water shaded the seafloor</a>. One of our motivations for continuing our surveys is associated with tracking and trying to understand the pace of kelp recovery after that die-back event...and in fact our survey work this year was funded <a href="https://www.eopugetsound.org/articles/new-studies-aid-kelp-conservation">as part of a larger, region-wide, kelp restoration and recovery effort</a>. Largely that recovery seems to have happened around the Elwha River mouth, with the notable exception of the handful of sites where formerly coarse substrates were buried by finer sediments. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi8WryeDKH1KpH7BFIRy5v1eYKypFna83U_FHMEZs4X6DjwKmQbK_TBbJZc17C1PLAqyV-xlN1H_uQf4TI03A8BU5Ooi0ZJLSiWCS-8BEzX7j0ILUuG4eAcI6osvzCBtY_8YHlmVmZhMlugExlkLipgwDUEUNB9TjedeKRfyUAp8RV41WBxhENOx9KF=s2048" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi8WryeDKH1KpH7BFIRy5v1eYKypFna83U_FHMEZs4X6DjwKmQbK_TBbJZc17C1PLAqyV-xlN1H_uQf4TI03A8BU5Ooi0ZJLSiWCS-8BEzX7j0ILUuG4eAcI6osvzCBtY_8YHlmVmZhMlugExlkLipgwDUEUNB9TjedeKRfyUAp8RV41WBxhENOx9KF=s320" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Steve Rubin of the USGS emerging out of a plume of fine sediment, kicked up at a site that used to host a higher density of kelps...but where the substrate is now fine enough that kelps have a hard time finding a place to grow. 2 August 2021 photo by Ian Miller</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>Kelps typically like to attach to and grown on coarse substrates - either bedrock, boulders or large cobbles on the seafloor that allow kelps stay in place in the fierce currents that characterize many of the places they like to live. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhJzCUJMyuyUav6XIIjgN4tAE0Davh8oEKf6oeewriVq3429YYsqvzsbk28OEwnou2j4__UX30BDqy7sY_ujAtOrEuJ-70od-zYdqDluHMNlDBAmR8G18t3u78aKDl5vvjn7b1jO14g3BfCCqFPtE-nc7r0FfWzde3jwlyPL0spnAEUMzXCYHiIDtui=s2048" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhJzCUJMyuyUav6XIIjgN4tAE0Davh8oEKf6oeewriVq3429YYsqvzsbk28OEwnou2j4__UX30BDqy7sY_ujAtOrEuJ-70od-zYdqDluHMNlDBAmR8G18t3u78aKDl5vvjn7b1jO14g3BfCCqFPtE-nc7r0FfWzde3jwlyPL0spnAEUMzXCYHiIDtui=s320" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Kelp stipes attached to cobbles. As the kelp grew larger they eventually became buoyant enough that these cobbles have been picked up off the seafloor. 14 September 2021 photo by Ian Miller</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>But in places where there isn't suitable substrate we've found that kelps can still grow by attaching to other organisms, notably tubeworms, which build strong and stable tubes that anchor them in soft substrates. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCsQhtGWDKTUFzrYSMatOb-FgWx2Unloe7uxNh_yhbKO6VzBGQAwDIBBdry_-21uI84sPPRprDiekSdrzolw-PSNmIyrMdmca4ap2adzjiKCPpOC5tk_rgAbWzhiltcsJII8g_ZmPd-T0qbV0gON2LNVy79Z1UGkfKJ2-i6aFOLsnpnZX5HeAKvLFV=s2048" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCsQhtGWDKTUFzrYSMatOb-FgWx2Unloe7uxNh_yhbKO6VzBGQAwDIBBdry_-21uI84sPPRprDiekSdrzolw-PSNmIyrMdmca4ap2adzjiKCPpOC5tk_rgAbWzhiltcsJII8g_ZmPd-T0qbV0gON2LNVy79Z1UGkfKJ2-i6aFOLsnpnZX5HeAKvLFV=s320" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A tubeworm tube, in this case <a href="https://inverts.wallawalla.edu/Annelida/Sabellidae/Eudistylia_vancouveri.html">Eudistylia vancouverii</a>, emerging out of soft sediment at a site near the Elwha River mouth. 28 August 2021 photo by Ian Miller</td></tr></tbody></table><br />We've seen this at sites around the Elwha in the past, but this year the phenomenon was very notable at a site right about <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/LDod685bEzWEDZgB9">here</a>, to the west of the Elwha River mouth. This site has always been a good one for tubeworms, perhaps because its a generally pretty silty site. This year kelps, especially Bull kelp (<a href="https://www.centralcoastbiodiversity.org/bull-kelp-bull-nereocystis-luetkeana.html">Nereocystis leutkeana</a>), found those tubeworms to be an attractive substrate to grow on. As I cruised around here after we finished our survey I was struck that MOST of the Bull kelp I observed at this site was growing on a tubeworm. <div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiq3J3lbSmZePKvxAiEilfQ3YHzHoT-6k4ZNdW2qkEoFM0OUZB2wlYVjGHtf7s1FLY50ZY_dA0-XwP6fdm8_ZGxaifY_d29bmPAos62NApggQm4XHt3pO1SzW1KeWASQG-NzQWpGEQcm7MzQl7yGG-uh2MUNtD6BGk82NRlO2FqhnBdaMZwsjZvkmzD=s2048" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiq3J3lbSmZePKvxAiEilfQ3YHzHoT-6k4ZNdW2qkEoFM0OUZB2wlYVjGHtf7s1FLY50ZY_dA0-XwP6fdm8_ZGxaifY_d29bmPAos62NApggQm4XHt3pO1SzW1KeWASQG-NzQWpGEQcm7MzQl7yGG-uh2MUNtD6BGk82NRlO2FqhnBdaMZwsjZvkmzD=s320" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A Bull kelp holdfast and stipe. The holdfast here is growing on and around a tubeworm tube. 28 August 2021 photo by Ian Miller</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj_dj9w_9_ovyDUVuwIri59wQo-E_b6xSLpOUnpvikp3NT6mVmC2lNpF9AvJm-cs6hCZhYI4KGI9r4EO8_-pFdNsEHUiZXh5B0mBgEud_2fHsLSXgQ8qESSZ5H5S-l7ucdY_vjQIMcQG-mhYnmvgVw41DD7jnVF14CiR3jvkTjUOED5PXWVYHyzFFa3=s2048" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1536" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj_dj9w_9_ovyDUVuwIri59wQo-E_b6xSLpOUnpvikp3NT6mVmC2lNpF9AvJm-cs6hCZhYI4KGI9r4EO8_-pFdNsEHUiZXh5B0mBgEud_2fHsLSXgQ8qESSZ5H5S-l7ucdY_vjQIMcQG-mhYnmvgVw41DD7jnVF14CiR3jvkTjUOED5PXWVYHyzFFa3=s320" width="240" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Close up of a Bull kelp holdfast growing on and over a tubeworm. The tubeworm tube provides an extraordinarily stable and strong substrate for growth, that can support fully grown Bull kelp. 28 August 2021 photo by Ian Miller</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><div><br /><div><br /><p><br /></p></div></div>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-19564432867365732782021-08-12T15:49:00.003-07:002021-08-17T08:34:38.938-07:00IPCC sea level rise hot take<p> The 6th IPCC Assessment report was released yesterday (find the full report <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf">here</a>), which provides a good motivation for digging into any new sea level insights they summarize, and also to start to work out what the IPCC's new global projections mean for Washington State (and how they compare to the projections <a href="https://wacoastalnetwork.com/research-and-tools/slr-projections/">we released in 2018</a>). </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTES6OsxnbOd_e2mf2G3zdPHFmlr4v83lyoGiekhkqlLj39AWPblO5SGO-Ew-2wlCWZElE6uDzM4ebgWL_VPs1KcV3C9V0wSyhEm_p0cxrZ3Er8-EhqPTcLehKqfOMISYJvo9nTIRURwA/s1280/24_Mask_Group_71_2x.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1280" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTES6OsxnbOd_e2mf2G3zdPHFmlr4v83lyoGiekhkqlLj39AWPblO5SGO-Ew-2wlCWZElE6uDzM4ebgWL_VPs1KcV3C9V0wSyhEm_p0cxrZ3Er8-EhqPTcLehKqfOMISYJvo9nTIRURwA/s320/24_Mask_Group_71_2x.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Time-series of ice mass loss in Greenland, <a href="https://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov/resources/33/greenland-ice-loss-2002-2016/">published by NASA</a> </td></tr></tbody></table><p>First off, a few interesting nuggets from the section on observed changes in the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf">Summary for Policy Makers</a> (mostly pages SPM-5 and SPM-6): Contributions to sea level change from melting ice became the dominant contributor sometime around the beginning of the 21st century - prior to that contributions from thermal expansion were about equal to those from melting ice. This is a big change, as sea level contributions from melting ice are more uncertain, and potentially far larger as we move through the 21st century, than those from thermal expansion. The IPCC report ascribes a strong confidence ("very likely" in IPCC parlance) that melting in Greenland (see figure above or <a href="https://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov/resources/33/greenland-ice-loss-2002-2016/">here</a>) is associated with anthropogenic forcing, whereas finds "only limited evidence, with medium agreement, of human influence on the Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss" (which again, NASA visualizes <a href="https://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov/resources/34/antarctic-ice-loss-2002-2016/">here</a>). Also, observed global average sea level rise since 1900 is pegged at about 8 inches...if it were to stay there for the 21st century we would be doing quite well. The problem is that the IPCC assigns "high confidence" to rates of global average sea level rise having accelerated already in the 21st century. </p><p>On to the projections:</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_VKP8fXTYmD5jxTzVvOQ0fkUMbImM8bqKLBIIE9HhVHNlCTp5eesujoWU1xx_MV2KVdv-6AdsYG3qecWb-pJiFXBha8wHEL03dhy9SmrHo9PW6MjvB7kZBcRbns7ga1ocfC2OQvRnwlU/s701/Capture.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="374" data-original-width="701" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_VKP8fXTYmD5jxTzVvOQ0fkUMbImM8bqKLBIIE9HhVHNlCTp5eesujoWU1xx_MV2KVdv-6AdsYG3qecWb-pJiFXBha8wHEL03dhy9SmrHo9PW6MjvB7kZBcRbns7ga1ocfC2OQvRnwlU/w400-h214/Capture.JPG" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Summary global average sea level projections from the IPCC 6th AR.</td></tr></tbody></table><p>There aren't huge changes to the overall sea level change picture in this AR. There is a new family of emissions scenarios but each is still tied to a particular level of radiative forcing, so its easy to do a quick comparison to projections associated with the RCP family of emissions scenarios. For each emission scenario the IPCC focuses on a "likely range" around their best estimate, that is intended to represent the zone of uncertainty between the 17th and 83rd percentile of a probability distribution - and I found this acknowledgement of uncertainty in a probabilistic framework to be useful. Generally we see projections in the ~close-to-1-meter zone for the higher emissions scenarios, and somewhere in the 0.5 meter zone by 2100 for the lower emissions scenarios...about what we've been working with for a while. </p><p>They also state, "only likely ranges are assessed...due to difficulties in estimating the distribution of deeply uncertain processes". The IPCC has NOT adopted <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1778">the expert elicitation process</a> that was used to define the tails of the uncertainty distribution that we used in our 2018 report, which I think is fine. Interestingly, though, the IPCC sort of gives a nod to the upper part of the uncertainty distribution, and also includes a "low-likelihood, high impact scenario" in this AR, which is included presumably because of the hints that Antarctica is giving to the world about possibly bigger-than-expected contributions to sea level rise in the future. In our 2018 report these high magnitude low likelihood scenarios were <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014EF000239">built into the model</a> (again, using <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1778">expert elicitation</a>), but the message from both of these approaches is the same...there is a "can't be excluded as a possibility" chance of some pretty significant sea level rise this century, that will represent a significant strain on coastal communities and landscapes everywhere: whether you think of it as having a 1% chance of happening, or you think of it as a "low-likelihood" scenario perhaps doesn't matter so much. In this AR the IPCC also provides a 2300 projection, presumably to emphasize that, after the 2100 time horizon, sea level rise isn't going to slow down, regardless of the chosen emission scenario. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY3YzvIBM-VpcvMusgf1hpGrI3u1002EbQuAiqQd_NflQATNqtWcBosxe3gNb0kP6TkWEPHh2Fy_ggHiG1mSTWkKIvVapHzAyB88Voi2E8C3E2WjLOZ9zyf8_OD8hcvWqRjEYXf4mVivE/s984/Dashboard.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="984" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY3YzvIBM-VpcvMusgf1hpGrI3u1002EbQuAiqQd_NflQATNqtWcBosxe3gNb0kP6TkWEPHh2Fy_ggHiG1mSTWkKIvVapHzAyB88Voi2E8C3E2WjLOZ9zyf8_OD8hcvWqRjEYXf4mVivE/w400-h294/Dashboard.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Projections from our 2018 SLR assessment for Washington State, localized for Seattle (and <a href="https://public.tableau.com/shared/P9GRS4C6Y?:toolbar=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y">available here</a>).</td></tr></tbody></table><br />To take things a bit further, the <a href="https://sealevel.nasa.gov/science-team/team-members?page=1&itemsPerPage=50&sort=&search=&table=site_staffs&status=1&categories_id=(4+AND+(169))">NASA sea level change team</a> worked with the IPCC to develop a localized sea level viewer for the 6th AR projections, and they include projections for Seattle:<div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmnwfQNo1CMPlYRZ_6A9Q6Cid-tpjdwU4yu21NXSbfNJbGASiVNZjNVwW55n9sL0CuymL0in8cYMOigqlK70TrKCETSTzLqwWvIlQXXK57xYVgiKLWSvOVfFksaSGtPwDofhvzpARgH7I/s1187/Capture2.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="676" data-original-width="1187" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmnwfQNo1CMPlYRZ_6A9Q6Cid-tpjdwU4yu21NXSbfNJbGASiVNZjNVwW55n9sL0CuymL0in8cYMOigqlK70TrKCETSTzLqwWvIlQXXK57xYVgiKLWSvOVfFksaSGtPwDofhvzpARgH7I/w400-h228/Capture2.JPG" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Seattle projections from the IPCC 6th AR for SSP-8.5 out to 2150, <a href="https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projection-tool">available through the NASA Sea Level Change portal</a>.</td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div>which provides an easy way to do an apple-to-apples (or close to) comparison with our 2018 projections (shown above). For 2100 for Seattle for the SSP-8.5 scenario they project sea level 0.69 meters above present, with a likely range between 0.51 and 0.98 meters. Our projections suggest 0.70 meters by 2100, with a likely range between 0.51 and 0.94 meters...basically dead on equivalent. </div><div><br /></div><div>The differences, of course, are in the upper part of the uncertainty distribution. We, for example, allow users to access a 1% chance sea level scenario, which comes in at 1.55 meters by 2100 for Seattle, whereas the IPCC opted to include a "low confidence" scenario, which they peg at 0.81 meters by 2100. They DO though include a "likely range" for this "low confidence" scenario (which I'm having a hard time wrapping my brain around), which ranges between 0.51 and 1.45 meters. Its also worth noting that the 0.81 meter 2100 "low confidence" scenario projection falls within their "likely range" for the "normal confidence" projections...again something that I can't quite figure out how to interpret. Clearly, the upper part of the sea level rise uncertainty distribution remains a bit of a bugaboo.<br /><p><br />
</p><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1628807264368" style="position: relative;"><br /><noscript><a href='https://cig.uw.edu/'><img alt='Dashboard ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/B4/B4YS77R4Q/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1628807264368'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 800 ) { vizElement.style.width='985px';vizElement.style.height='725px';} else if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 500 ) { vizElement.style.width='985px';vizElement.style.height='725px';} else { vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height='4100px';} var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script><p></p></div>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-91717075519235883422021-07-12T15:09:00.013-07:002021-07-12T15:26:39.093-07:00Heat in the lower intertidal: The role of tidal propagation <p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCXIrdmKUwMFYpat6N5HPfO1Qjx3lFiGkX1RFydbH6NUXQ_UkXIbLjCOAnwUZtDw5mrjhhS7XWfAMeJ31G0f_Pus7I7EKEuBfUNey8Od1Fa9zA6jVLLceKijKEDB6gM1RHUWC8cjEjhY8/s2048/IMG_20210709_113554267.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCXIrdmKUwMFYpat6N5HPfO1Qjx3lFiGkX1RFydbH6NUXQ_UkXIbLjCOAnwUZtDw5mrjhhS7XWfAMeJ31G0f_Pus7I7EKEuBfUNey8Od1Fa9zA6jVLLceKijKEDB6gM1RHUWC8cjEjhY8/s320/IMG_20210709_113554267.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">9 July 2021 photo of dead cockles from the intertidal <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/Fw58VPfmMqzgNwiD7">off of Marrowstone Island</a> </td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>By this point the intertidal ramifications of the late June Pacific Northwest heat wave have been well reported on, with some pretty dire accounts coming in from <a href="https://www.thenewstribune.com/news/state/article252684493.html">throughout the Salish Sea</a> and Pacific coast region of Washington and <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/crushing-heat-wave-in-pacific-northwest-and-canada-cooked-shellfish-alive-by-the-millions/">British Columbia</a>. I've been seeing the influence as I visit various shorelines, including dead cockles on Marrowstone Island (photo above), and the same off of the Dungeness River delta:</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwxEvLPPJJktBDLYjXmTdVmdX2NCjK0XawvD5RwF5Jn7gLAO4dlqwsjjPP4QbQ-Xh23sILkhA-DVfKWijwZRZwVT4cPkYQqSb56SZgTMKqL86mkQJQQrWSV8xfnUfGzEuFmVkM9lhyphenhyphenEyQ/s2048/IMG_20210707_094304286.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1536" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwxEvLPPJJktBDLYjXmTdVmdX2NCjK0XawvD5RwF5Jn7gLAO4dlqwsjjPP4QbQ-Xh23sILkhA-DVfKWijwZRZwVT4cPkYQqSb56SZgTMKqL86mkQJQQrWSV8xfnUfGzEuFmVkM9lhyphenhyphenEyQ/s320/IMG_20210707_094304286.jpg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">7 July 2021 photo of more dead cockles, taken <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/9yTx4ryeA9gGVJXA9">about here</a> on the Dungeness River delta. </td></tr></tbody></table><br />Yesterday I also hunted around Kalaloch Beach on the coast of Washington and for the most part was impressed by how little mortality there seemed to be on the intertidal rocks, though some impacts were visible:<div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUg64FfihI1wnSPBYwGxdt90RSKWnc21DG60bKfVpm-0vLPpvluDlDutW6-plWe_NzaGo1ggp4CKPnSRX0ohGkXT5MZ1fvMNHFRohuqW4uggBUD5YffkPzpleWITe1rNZjKfAFB39qYUA/s2048/IMG_0015.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUg64FfihI1wnSPBYwGxdt90RSKWnc21DG60bKfVpm-0vLPpvluDlDutW6-plWe_NzaGo1ggp4CKPnSRX0ohGkXT5MZ1fvMNHFRohuqW4uggBUD5YffkPzpleWITe1rNZjKfAFB39qYUA/s320/IMG_0015.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">11 July 2021, dead mussels still attached to the rock on the rocks in the lower intertidal at Kalaloch <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/MTxGBj4ttwXrYmnc9">about here</a>.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>There has been one interesting wrinkle to the interaction between that June heat wave and the very low tides that weekend that I wanted to focus on a bit, which has to do with the pattern of propagation of tides from the Washington Coast into and through the Salish Sea. Low tides in the summer tend to occur during the daytime in coastal Washington, but not at the same time during the day. The low tide propagates as a wave, with the trough (i.e. the lowest part of the tide) generally hitting the outer coast in the morning, generally reaching the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca about two hours later (generally late morning), reaching Seattle in the after-lunch hours in general, and then reaching Olympia about an hour after that. So the long and the short of it is that a low tide that is lowest at La Push on the Washington coast at 8am in the morning won't reach Olympia until 5.5 hours later, at 1:30 pm. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvGFMJLD4CqNfiwwXh2J4tX1TWdiLSisy7mzI3kwzZG6AGM90QFaQyZdXQPxnaUyCNAPSc6h0052lFFbU1hwBp4_WvvmocBGYUiwPELZk_ypr_O1HRenWugxgj4VC03yeZc_9kKGgzmVc/s2520/MondayTides.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1025" data-original-width="2520" height="163" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvGFMJLD4CqNfiwwXh2J4tX1TWdiLSisy7mzI3kwzZG6AGM90QFaQyZdXQPxnaUyCNAPSc6h0052lFFbU1hwBp4_WvvmocBGYUiwPELZk_ypr_O1HRenWugxgj4VC03yeZc_9kKGgzmVc/w400-h163/MondayTides.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Measured water level along a west-to-east gradient - at La Push, Port Angeles, and Friday Harbor - on Monday June 28th 2021, illustrating the pace of propagation of the low tide from the coast into the Strait of Juan de Fuca. </td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>So what this means, of course, is that the heating of the intertidal will be different along that spatial gradient as well, since temperature varies so much throughout the day, and is generally highest in the afternoon. Its much more likely that uncomfortable temperatures will be reached in the lower intertidal in south Puget Sound, for example, as compared to the coast, just because the summer low tides occur later in the day when its warmer. </div><div><br /></div><div>So was this evident during the heat wave? It appears so, at least based on a quick look at air temperature data collected at some tide gauges, that I was able to couple with water level data. I ended up working with data from La Push, Port Angeles and Friday Harbor simply because I'm well set up to download and manipulate data served from the NOAA tides and currents website, but found that air temperature were not available for any of the Puget Sound stations (i.e. Seattle or Tacoma), so wasn't able to incorporate those locations into my analysis. But La Push, Port Angeles and Friday Harbor provided me with plenty to work with. </div><div><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNDWSS9ViP0yH9CCrJsZEWM_har1zB06eZgEGggu6cHlMaEwkUoFrvHBdWAl5aIjyp8H37I3UJzrxbVAfTTu0PVGYTLroWOcdmijj6Du1w1gt8jy3jEQtL90xftSLdYkbfM2qMPMywxTM/s2520/AirTemp.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1025" data-original-width="2520" height="163" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNDWSS9ViP0yH9CCrJsZEWM_har1zB06eZgEGggu6cHlMaEwkUoFrvHBdWAl5aIjyp8H37I3UJzrxbVAfTTu0PVGYTLroWOcdmijj6Du1w1gt8jy3jEQtL90xftSLdYkbfM2qMPMywxTM/w400-h163/AirTemp.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Air temperature recorded at tide gauges in La Push, Port Angeles and Friday Harbor during the late June heat wave</td></tr></tbody></table><br />So I focused in on the three hottest days - Saturday the 27th, Sunday the 28th and Monday the 29th...and the air temperature recorded at three tide gauges are shown above. The first thing that pops out to me is that La Push was considerably cooler than Port Angeles and Friday Harbor, especially on Saturday and Sunday. Not a huge surprise. Generally temperatures were a bit warmer in Friday Harbor as compared to Port Angeles, though not by a lot. Interesting, on both Sunday and Monday Friday Harbor cooled an hour or so sooner than Port Angeles at the end of the day...something I tentatively attribute to shading of the stations as the sun drops (Friday Harbor's station would be blocked in the late afternoon <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/VGLg68T9RB4Z23S56">by the mass of San Juan Island</a>, whereas the <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/L9WGsNqR4gMmuw6b8">Port Angeles tide gauge</a> likely doesn't have that same later afternoon shading). </div><div><br /></div><div>My next step was to couple those air temperature data with water level data to calculate how much time various elevations in the intertidal exceeded a critical threshold temperature...I chose 25 degrees celsius as a relevant ecological threshold based on conversations with a few marine ecologists. Perhaps not surprisingly given the air temperature time-series above, when I calculate the hours above 25 degrees celsius and plot it as an elevation profile I get this for the three locations:</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyyVrbUKq0FP12hCWt_4KygnnigumxJt-BbcCXfYyt62i9Cc9AOQoSiRJ3OXjtaY3FvgjNrltdr3Y1KogCThqavf_ZaMDec9eZ5A_r7rY6pcPdVXvmTii9trKioMqxJfaFZ4vhF0SuhwQ/s2520/exceedance_profiles.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1025" data-original-width="2520" height="163" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyyVrbUKq0FP12hCWt_4KygnnigumxJt-BbcCXfYyt62i9Cc9AOQoSiRJ3OXjtaY3FvgjNrltdr3Y1KogCThqavf_ZaMDec9eZ5A_r7rY6pcPdVXvmTii9trKioMqxJfaFZ4vhF0SuhwQ/w400-h163/exceedance_profiles.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Amount of time (in hours) that various intertidal elevations exceeded 25 degrees celsius between 27 and 29 June 2021 at three locations in coastal Washington</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>In the profiles, La Push stands out here as having way less exposure to temperatures over 25 celsius...simply because it was cooler there, especially on Saturday and Sunday. Before I move on though, its worth noting that the data from La Push <i>do suggest heating exposure over 25C really low in the intertidal (i.e. below MLLW), </i>and even though its nothing compared to what the intertidal to the east likely experienced, it may be unprecedented. The <a href="https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46041">NOAA buoy that sits off the Washington Coast off of Taholah</a>, for example, has only measured hourly average air temperature over 25 degrees celsius 34 times since 1988 (all during a series of warm days in September 2017 that did not correspond with low tides). </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjboja0qf04exII1GSxacQ5gxDD_V1eX4UDZOfhRFGADKRPk9S8fVsHFZHETXZQG2ED-QDgYg2HjCrW1q8KYZS3LWe4kIZsuaijpQwI65gLzQydtYW5Y2x7j8wQ-qxH9o0-_Ul9Fo0W2oY/s1920/percentabove.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="844" data-original-width="1920" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjboja0qf04exII1GSxacQ5gxDD_V1eX4UDZOfhRFGADKRPk9S8fVsHFZHETXZQG2ED-QDgYg2HjCrW1q8KYZS3LWe4kIZsuaijpQwI65gLzQydtYW5Y2x7j8wQ-qxH9o0-_Ul9Fo0W2oY/w400-h176/percentabove.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Average number of hours exceeding 25C for the lowest part of the intertidal (below MLLW) in La Push, Port Angeles and Friday Harbor (top panel), and the same but expressed as a percentage of the total number of hours between 27 and 29 June 2021 that were above 25C. This is where we see the influence of the later low tides inside the Salish Sea.</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Okay, but can we see an influence of tidal propagation in heating? Yes we do. In the bar plot above I averaged the number of hours over 25C experienced by the lowest parts of the intertidal (below MLLW) at each of the three location, and we see that west to east gradient. Again, that COULD just be due to it being a bit warmer in Friday Harbor than it was in Port Angeles and La Push, but the difference between Port Angeles and Friday Harbor is telling - the tide gauge in Port Angeles actually experienced more time above 25C (31.7 hours in Port Angeles over those three days, versus 30.7 hours in Friday Harbor)...but there were more hours at the Friday Harbor tide gauge that the <i>lowest part of the intertidal</i> (again below MLLW) experienced those elevated temperatures (4.8 hours in Friday Harbor versus 3.8 in Port Angeles). To pull that out a bit I've expressed it as a percentage of the total time exceeding 25C at those three locations (lower panel in the figure above)...and we still see that gradient...that is the tidal influence at work.<div><br /></div><div>I hadn't really thought of this interaction between tidal propagation and daily heating before, but since heating and dessication are critical stressors for intertidal organisms it may exert an important influence on what can live in the intertidal in various parts of coastal Washington. The low intertidal of south Puget Sound is likely a very different place to live than the lower intertidal of the coast of Washington, and not only because of the wave protection differences and the different geology and geography.</div><div><div><br /><div><br /><p><br /></p></div></div></div>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-12463058529056913412021-06-07T16:08:00.005-07:002021-06-07T16:21:49.697-07:00Coastal storm forensics on Ediz Hook<div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQvvnYoniSGL712DW9TIbbvSuECZrxmrGSZbFYF1JsvX0fxyBJ8ay8NcR7YbEWaiHq3LHVHhx764mNtSwnhXViYjlk3k14KL7iBnVyhQcYbSDrxY2JhGVNSlkRX1nDt5n_1lw-75rPWho/s2048/IMG_20210526_103317597_HDR.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQvvnYoniSGL712DW9TIbbvSuECZrxmrGSZbFYF1JsvX0fxyBJ8ay8NcR7YbEWaiHq3LHVHhx764mNtSwnhXViYjlk3k14KL7iBnVyhQcYbSDrxY2JhGVNSlkRX1nDt5n_1lw-75rPWho/s320/IMG_20210526_103317597_HDR.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Looking to the east from about <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/SYRxw1rJcd7sEWjk9">here</a>. The area of overwash referenced in the text below is just out of the frame to the left.</td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div>With permission from the US Coast Guard I made my annual trip last week out to the end of Ediz Hook, to survey the shoreline. I was struck on this trip by the sign left beyond by what looked to be a pretty exciting storm that must have happened this winter, that both eroded and over-washed the berm on the northern shoreline of the hook, and flooded the <a href="https://washington-shorelines-now-then.blogspot.com/2020/07/ediz-hook-part-four-light-house.html">large grassy field that used to host the lighhouse</a> that sat at the end of the hook. <div><br /></div><div>Overwash is driven by waves, typically coupled with a high still water level (there is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xPkcsOuUHw">some cool footage of overwash in action from North Carolina here</a>...), and sort of by definition leads to flooding behind the berm. That looks to be what happened here. I surveyed in the extent of the overwash I could observe, and found it to be pretty extensive:</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzMv7Q2UjiELjdIZblzulHj8taa7b8QcXcZeo3UcbNjP_eIKkFPDCs-LRHMt8sn0nOBk1TDs2QbyHm7UM5yQiEwlG2ivjk43Xn2JHHle_vajyoJ-DR1dDxeBn9kKoGoow5k20PBepso8A/s1980/EdizOverwash.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1530" data-original-width="1980" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzMv7Q2UjiELjdIZblzulHj8taa7b8QcXcZeo3UcbNjP_eIKkFPDCs-LRHMt8sn0nOBk1TDs2QbyHm7UM5yQiEwlG2ivjk43Xn2JHHle_vajyoJ-DR1dDxeBn9kKoGoow5k20PBepso8A/s320/EdizOverwash.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mapped overwash deposit (the tan polygon) on Ediz Hook - surveyed 26 May 2021</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>The signs of the event are also readily observable in some of the beach profiles I collected from within the overwash zone - showing an eroded beach and berm as well as the overwash deposit behind the beach:</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZXv7xopuSlfHFoMJOfVUfmRcOYaUvssOH2IiyhvHbHxMwAhkHk5gvsl3-G_GLEq8BluGjWrqfPpPTBv40-wHdIyK0NQZv-mIvmrnA67fgcxAFTusQg-9n8k_JnxmeUCqvVfEy34i_6QE/s2048/Presentation1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1152" data-original-width="2048" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZXv7xopuSlfHFoMJOfVUfmRcOYaUvssOH2IiyhvHbHxMwAhkHk5gvsl3-G_GLEq8BluGjWrqfPpPTBv40-wHdIyK0NQZv-mIvmrnA67fgcxAFTusQg-9n8k_JnxmeUCqvVfEy34i_6QE/w320-h180/Presentation1.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Profile data from inside the overwash zone from 2020 and 2021</td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div> I also surveyed the debris line that would have roughly demarcated the area flooded by this storm:</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWlq2wQE_MM1L_ib9yy3B75M9d5PQOStzt4ObMGAX47xYOybnH7p2Y_IreycA-sxXU_z-FSviDog021CoXRzhY5Oj3xC8D8OpwFBKqKWeyF1GETxDKZyk7h7GE0vWRx8rBljWF-o35xVw/s1980/EdizFlooding.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1530" data-original-width="1980" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWlq2wQE_MM1L_ib9yy3B75M9d5PQOStzt4ObMGAX47xYOybnH7p2Y_IreycA-sxXU_z-FSviDog021CoXRzhY5Oj3xC8D8OpwFBKqKWeyF1GETxDKZyk7h7GE0vWRx8rBljWF-o35xVw/s320/EdizFlooding.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mapped flood extent based on the location of a debris line, surveyed 26 May 2021</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>So when did it happen? That is a bit hard to say, but if I had to guess I would think that it must have been associated with one of the two storm events of note from this winter, one in November 2020 and the other in January 2021. I wrote about both events in this blog (i.e. <a href="https://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2021/02/january-12th-was-widespread-and.html">here for the January 12th event</a>), but was <a href="https://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2020/11/anatomy-of-coastal-storm-17-november.html">in Friday Harbor for the November event</a>, so didn't really get a first hand view of what it looked like in the Strait. Between the two events the highest still water level, or the water level as recorded by the tide gauge, was just over 0.75 meters relative to MHHW, associated with the November 2020 event. But that doesn't get us very far - the peak of the berm in the overwash zone I mapped on Ediz Hook, though, sits almost 2 meters above MHHW - so the still water level elevation would come nowhere near to over-topping the berm and flooding the land behind. </div><div><br /></div><div>My write-ups clearly suggest that both events were characterized by wind and waves, and the data suggest that both events featured <a href="https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46088">wave heights of well over one meter in the Strait</a>. But if we look in more detail at the <i>co-occurence</i> of wind and waves with still water level the evidence seems to point clearly to the January 2021 event as the culprit. Specifically, I calculated an estimate of total water level - or the elevation that water would reach on the beach during a storm under the influence of tides, storm surges and wave run-up - using data from the Port Angeles tide gauge coupled with wave data collected at the <a href="https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46088">New Dungeness buoy</a>. Now first let me make it clear that this is far from a perfect way to estimate total water level...and acknowledge that waves striking Ediz Hook during a storm may be very different than those recorded some 30+ kilometers away. But assuming that the New Dungeness buoy is somewhat representative of waves in the central Strait of Juan de Fuca my total water level model suggests that the peak total water level this past winter was reached on 12 January 2021, that it probably exceeded the elevation of the berm on Ediz Hook, and that it may have been the only event this winter that exceeded that critical berm elevation threshold:</div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg32KGesxRVuEzwDl72DUztbZG_MOsvwFfdhjHzY6DSti18ycORN6yg94Zj1ocnYq0880yatWIIblGTvNrfXiRK8bQkZfIZgw9yh5ygvz-oGlSThyqbg8FrMoHLGpHmkU9ze-5OsUZY9hw/s1920/TWLmodel.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="911" data-original-width="1920" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg32KGesxRVuEzwDl72DUztbZG_MOsvwFfdhjHzY6DSti18ycORN6yg94Zj1ocnYq0880yatWIIblGTvNrfXiRK8bQkZfIZgw9yh5ygvz-oGlSThyqbg8FrMoHLGpHmkU9ze-5OsUZY9hw/s320/TWLmodel.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Estimated total water level on Ediz Hook based on water level data from the Port Angeles tide gauge and wave records from the New Dungeness buoy. The dashed line is the estimated elevation of the beach berm on the end of Ediz Hook.</td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div>Fortunately, in this case, there wasn't much in the way of the damage to infrastructure, and my subsequent follow-up with USCG personnel suggested they didn't even note this erosion or flooding. <br /><div><br /><div><br /></div></div></div>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-60241298615388267232021-05-21T15:59:00.001-07:002021-05-21T15:59:09.846-07:00Going, going, gone: Coastal retreat in practice<p>I often hear of the concept of coastal retreat talked of in rather hushed terms, as if it is an impossibility. But in fact, it happens quite frequently, though with very poor tracking and monitoring. As an example I've been following the relocation of <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/aCnMsM2gBoCoJXsX8">a building on Ediz Hook</a> which is now used as our community rowing club's headquarters:</p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG5mLw7TXfzDUsd-zzPmL3pT497SKFSZIv2Vd38TbFK72GlgXEz91DlezWtbLllrtAmTEofXlbEKTBK3hoER3XD0r5QTXrRypzmVXLqT6vrzPwMHG5KVvVivQ3qOuFa94bOuwXhWzqe60/s2048/IMG_20200221_165419552_HDR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG5mLw7TXfzDUsd-zzPmL3pT497SKFSZIv2Vd38TbFK72GlgXEz91DlezWtbLllrtAmTEofXlbEKTBK3hoER3XD0r5QTXrRypzmVXLqT6vrzPwMHG5KVvVivQ3qOuFa94bOuwXhWzqe60/s320/IMG_20200221_165419552_HDR.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">February 2020 photo of the rowing club boathouse on Ediz Hook</td></tr></tbody></table><br />This building has been around for quite some time - here it is visible in a 1990 aerial photograph that is included in Google Earth:</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ7IAoCVxzxx87CI_Odo1Kgc5GpTO1jOh-q8IO8uVhZq0b2Ek3ZyDOm-UUHE5oYfxsGwjmA9L49JDj_GE8oAP71EtW6zMPTGGPAEv0z8psNoGe_0tP8owmkHMulOVuRp7ozXUz6TqS_K4/s1539/edizhookboathouse.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="1539" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ7IAoCVxzxx87CI_Odo1Kgc5GpTO1jOh-q8IO8uVhZq0b2Ek3ZyDOm-UUHE5oYfxsGwjmA9L49JDj_GE8oAP71EtW6zMPTGGPAEv0z8psNoGe_0tP8owmkHMulOVuRp7ozXUz6TqS_K4/s320/edizhookboathouse.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">1990 aerial image of Ediz Hook showing what is now the boathouse</td></tr></tbody></table><p>But placement on, or in this case, over:</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik-ePqIsDIGI2Ozu9DW8f7eHqvO6FpdfJEWZ1Et2ZA5G2bb4JjcYqxj4gJSmrmtqJAUFoKe1J6ta9FasBbIN3dUIUuKcpIDEEYeukFBQOX_jLg2OuVnk_hTpjt8-gjtQ1iudtNgIXuUS4/s2048/IMG_20200423_152557736_HDR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik-ePqIsDIGI2Ozu9DW8f7eHqvO6FpdfJEWZ1Et2ZA5G2bb4JjcYqxj4gJSmrmtqJAUFoKe1J6ta9FasBbIN3dUIUuKcpIDEEYeukFBQOX_jLg2OuVnk_hTpjt8-gjtQ1iudtNgIXuUS4/s320/IMG_20200423_152557736_HDR.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">April 23 2020 photo of the boathouse showing its seaward overhang and the set of pilings placed on the beach that it rests on</td></tr></tbody></table><p> a dynamic shoreline would take its toll on any building, and over time the building sustained enough damage that the costs of keeping it in its current location, I'm assuming, became untenable. As a result, the building was moved. The site above now looks like:</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_-OotMEQeQB555MVIxJIBkLsd_RWmjD2tOYSkSMBwS1W21mRLOpD5iqaOCWhrWWGYuZdAPKfaNU9v_8p_WLIXUREsJ3UwfBIxoHBSJR0HwaRfbijG_89Qk15EAyF1ZDYL9fvtGMJxmtw/s2048/IMG_20210430_163157412_HDR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_-OotMEQeQB555MVIxJIBkLsd_RWmjD2tOYSkSMBwS1W21mRLOpD5iqaOCWhrWWGYuZdAPKfaNU9v_8p_WLIXUREsJ3UwfBIxoHBSJR0HwaRfbijG_89Qk15EAyF1ZDYL9fvtGMJxmtw/s320/IMG_20210430_163157412_HDR.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">30 April 2021 photo of the former boathouse site</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>The remaining pilings and framing are slated to be removed this summer, associated with a restoration project led by the Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe. </div><div><br /></div><div>The building itself is still around, and will continue its life as the rowing club's headquarters...just in a new and hopefully safer location:</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUTA4tuQtYzSr8pnVdxJbcMt6OtAzJ3b6WZSQaaIFOpCL9Pd2Rf0zgp7QQLGaYorLh9zAuxwQbniSrHrEW6xB7erho0HRvDS_Q5JB7rZHmt79F__PEZH3wLtHxQUfdnnKWW8LuopoItLY/s2048/IMG_20210430_162934930.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUTA4tuQtYzSr8pnVdxJbcMt6OtAzJ3b6WZSQaaIFOpCL9Pd2Rf0zgp7QQLGaYorLh9zAuxwQbniSrHrEW6xB7erho0HRvDS_Q5JB7rZHmt79F__PEZH3wLtHxQUfdnnKWW8LuopoItLY/s320/IMG_20210430_162934930.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">30 April 2021 photo of the re-located boathouse</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><br /></div><div><p><br /></p></div>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-63477705200813258542021-04-30T12:24:00.014-07:002021-05-20T08:29:37.393-07:00A record price for shoreline property<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIZqxO3P3I2bzfo-Eb7DYP1tr2BkpdY0dKOGkSK_8Em554M_TYu8-jWt3uEbfgzIfdXLIJGu8leZhE02wl5MNHIRDfKv7tLOMaUA06u1VGID9kvuzDiXfUFkQKNYBmmO3wdw-BtHGQy5s/s2048/160812_08406.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1365" data-original-width="2048" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIZqxO3P3I2bzfo-Eb7DYP1tr2BkpdY0dKOGkSK_8Em554M_TYu8-jWt3uEbfgzIfdXLIJGu8leZhE02wl5MNHIRDfKv7tLOMaUA06u1VGID9kvuzDiXfUFkQKNYBmmO3wdw-BtHGQy5s/w320-h213/160812_08406.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">August 2016 aerial oblique of a stretch of shoreline on the Dungeness River delta on the Olympic Peninsula. The home referenced below is the 4th from the left.</td></tr></tbody></table><p>An associate recently sent me a message, referring me to a Facebook post by a local real estate agency on Washington's Olympic Peninsula. The message read, "Sequim's highest home sale price EVER just closed today!". The thing that made <a href="https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/293-Three-Crabs-Rd-Sequim-WA-98382/114622219_zpid/">this sale</a> noteworthy was the <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/KpSN2zYQ9xLb92459">home's location</a> on the Dungeness River delta, in an area that is <a href="https://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2019/01/anatomy-of-coastal-storm-december-20.html">currently exposed to fairly routine coastal flooding</a>, the <a href="https://irp-cdn.multiscreensite.com/6c85e905/files/uploaded/Sea%20Level%20Rise%20Probability%20Maps-DUNGENESS%20RIVER%20DELTA.pdf">depth and frequency of which</a> are only going to increase. By the end of this century it is possible that this lot could flood on every high tide (i.e. see <a href="https://irp-cdn.multiscreensite.com/6c85e905/files/uploaded/Sea%20Level%20Rise%20Probability%20Maps-DUNGENESS%20RIVER%20DELTA.pdf">these maps</a>, particularly map #5, assembled as part of <a href="https://www.noprcd.org/climate-change-report">this project</a>). It shouldn't come as a surprise that the infrastructure on this particular property was identified as being highly vulnerable<a href="https://jamestowntribe.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Map-Built-Environment-Vulnerability.pdf"> in a quantitative sea level rise vulnerability analysis</a> <a href="https://jamestowntribe.org/natural-resources/habitat/dungeness-river-delta-prioritizing-flood-risk/">conducted a few years back</a>. It seems a lot of money to pay for that sort of risk, but this particular home sales record is yet another indication that, locally, vulnerabilities related to sea level rise or coastal flooding are not influencing local real estate markets, or purchasing decisions. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSJwuco32-t7YIfEjtzSK7R5cRzUacviLLS-VwmIB9O31S2CHyht3PoHbktxIy2ZmhDS-oRRw9q_wZrlEZdcadnVV6PyvdSE4DF8HGrtP56lHFy-ZcgWBtwYQ5o7IHTdetGsGQ9WG8y4I/s701/Capture.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="664" data-original-width="701" height="303" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSJwuco32-t7YIfEjtzSK7R5cRzUacviLLS-VwmIB9O31S2CHyht3PoHbktxIy2ZmhDS-oRRw9q_wZrlEZdcadnVV6PyvdSE4DF8HGrtP56lHFy-ZcgWBtwYQ5o7IHTdetGsGQ9WG8y4I/w320-h303/Capture.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Screen grabbed Facebook post that got me going on this topic</td></tr></tbody></table><p>This is also relevant because I was just interviewed by <a href="http://invezz.com">invezz.com</a>, a financial investment news and guidance company (<a href="https://invezz.com/news/2021/05/10/is-the-tide-turning-on-waterfront-property-an-interview-with-dr-ian-miller/">here</a> is the article). They were interested in writing a piece examining if, when and how factors like sea level rise, changing coastal flooding dynamics, or <a href="https://bates-hewett.com/2021/04/fema-unveils-changes-to-the-national-flood-insurance-program/">changes to the National Flood Insurance Program</a>, will affect coastal real estate markets. My overall message was that I do think that there will be influences, and I do think it could be in our lifetime. That take-away is based on <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27930/w27930.pdf">some emerging evidence that real estate impacts due to sea level rise are already detectable in places like Florida</a>, and that <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Sustainability/Our%20Insights/Will%20mortgages%20and%20markets%20stay%20afloat%20in%20Florida/MGI-Will-mortgages-and-markets-stay-afloat-in-Florida.ashx">the overall real estate market there may have already shed 5 billion dollars of value</a> due to sea level rise-related risk (which seems like, and IS, a lot of money, but is only a small fraction of the total real estate value there). Its worth noting, though, that even this evidence emerging from a place that is one of the U.S.'s sea level rise hotspots is inconclusive, as evidenced by some of the real estate perspectives voiced in this interesting VICE piece on the Miami real estate market:</p><div style="text-align: center;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IUYk7GR1-EU" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Another key unknown, and one that is very relevant to those of us that think more broadly about uses of the coast, is how the sorts of major investments that people are now making to live on the shoreline will affect their decision-making as sea level rises. In particular, one has to assume that people who have invested so much in shoreline property will go to great lengths to defend it from flooding, which will likely come with societal and ecological costs. I had the chance, a few years back, to participate in <a href="https://pnwcirc.org/grays-harbor-coastal-futures">a project</a> that used a modelling approach to assess the social and ecological costs along the shoreline of Grays Harbor county in Washington State assuming that people make every effort to protect their property from flooding as sea level rose. Not only was the "protect-at-all-costs" approach <a href="http://explorer.bee.oregonstate.edu/Topic/GraysHarbor/Documents/CostVsBen_101518.pdf">very expensive</a>, but also led to the <a href="http://explorer.bee.oregonstate.edu/Topic/GraysHarbor/Documents/PublicGoodPoster_101518.pdf">greatest reductions in high value habitat and beach accessibility</a>. There is no reason to hypothesize a different outcome for the shoreline of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, in my mind. </div>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-43418686840394648822021-03-17T11:54:00.008-07:002021-03-17T12:04:21.308-07:00Erosion and (beach, but not bluff) recovery at Kalaloch<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieH03h8zt2-LmqyBJBkMpjtQ2uuMiDWcX1_5znF19hi6qHHZPJzWl6y4Qa-XrAOaB3QiLvYmT1Vd2KMES651Eu6dAKujir1aWdvqOpszCPwzYszQLkXpIWTwa9Py5V402Rkg9jFKdTn20/s2048/IMG_0014.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieH03h8zt2-LmqyBJBkMpjtQ2uuMiDWcX1_5znF19hi6qHHZPJzWl6y4Qa-XrAOaB3QiLvYmT1Vd2KMES651Eu6dAKujir1aWdvqOpszCPwzYszQLkXpIWTwa9Py5V402Rkg9jFKdTn20/s320/IMG_0014.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">12 March 2021 photo of the eroded access stairs below Kalaloch Lodge</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Through support from Washington Sea Grant, the <a href="https://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2019/09/beach-dynamics-make-west-end-natural.html">North Pacific Coast Marine Resources Committee</a>, and with a research permit from Olympic National Park, I've been prioritizing every-other-month trips out to the beach <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/y3XZTwUh8bGduMwLA">around Kalaloch Creek</a> to collect beach profiles and other shoreline morphology information. This post is intended to be a bit of a summary of observations I've made to date. So first off, some profiles going back to 2017 from the southern edge of my study area, just south of the lodge/cabins:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeQo1q6NQ_xgvARdgEqicvtwnmC9ozngSaPrD8CQ2AzzU_KAw9OhTcbFc4SkF0xla0BIL9rmU_MuYvNh-eHHToYdjrlD0keqK5hbbgeT2xAL2j1B_wq04U8zN71RF5YbBl6phMeea3efM/s2048/KalalochS_All.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1143" data-original-width="2048" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeQo1q6NQ_xgvARdgEqicvtwnmC9ozngSaPrD8CQ2AzzU_KAw9OhTcbFc4SkF0xla0BIL9rmU_MuYvNh-eHHToYdjrlD0keqK5hbbgeT2xAL2j1B_wq04U8zN71RF5YbBl6phMeea3efM/w400-h224/KalalochS_All.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>So these plots have three sub-panels - at the top are all of the profiles collected along a particular transect, and the location of the transect is shown in red in the map at lower left. The plot at lower right is a time-series of the position of the Mean High Water contour on the transect through time. In this particular figure note two things - first off the annual cycle in the position of the beach shown in the time-series at lower right. This seasonal cycle has to do with on-shore and off-shore movements of sand that are associated with seasonal changes in the wave climate, and its a common feature of high energy sandy beaches. The envelope of variability for the profiles at this site are also huge...the elevation of the beach changes by ~6 feet each year, suggesting that a truly massive weight of sand (something like 300,000-400,000 tons of sand if I did my math right) is potentially being pushed back and forth each year on and off the beach under Kalaloch Lodge. <div><br /></div><div>The other thing to note in these data is that there is no <i>obvious</i> chronic erosion going on on the beach over this 4 year time-frame (check <a href="https://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2019/09/beach-dynamics-make-west-end-natural.html">this</a> out for a bit more on that). In other words, each year the winter erosion that happens on the beach is countered by accretion in the spring and summer. Zooming in on data from the last three surveys perhaps illustrates this better, as beach recovery is already occurring after erosion that happened between October and January:</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3JDGORmZOCcjMVZc3zZBhgF8sq67fkojuq8zJ920vaJtbzRsvCNxa2QiKJG4Vsr-Jk3nT_BZim6rQTYH3iqT5nnP82gm6PBJL38iIBzc3O53R6x-iEGiHr5lOpUWaSef9CaP_-pnkwDM/s2048/KalalochS_Selection.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1143" data-original-width="2048" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3JDGORmZOCcjMVZc3zZBhgF8sq67fkojuq8zJ920vaJtbzRsvCNxa2QiKJG4Vsr-Jk3nT_BZim6rQTYH3iqT5nnP82gm6PBJL38iIBzc3O53R6x-iEGiHr5lOpUWaSef9CaP_-pnkwDM/w400-h224/KalalochS_Selection.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>At Kalaloch, though, chronic erosion IS occurring on the bluff. Since I survey with an RTK-DGPS system I'm not able to survey most of the bluff face, but I can generally collect data on the location of the toe of the bluff, and these bluffs are generally pretty vertical. The rates of bluff erosion are fastest to the north, nearer to the creek, and have been dramatic this winter:<div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1lNON5a8nwC1eTyFhwU73V_aYUMd0XW_fEPTW5grxAqJyDA25wSW1zpvP1igAt0y-XYP5C-ZEVumrc0WM5g9LNOu9SZY4t2Qbesoy2BY2FnrhZczXGkzUtI3mrOKvKe4Y74u84S3G6ik/s2048/KalalochN_All.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1143" data-original-width="2048" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1lNON5a8nwC1eTyFhwU73V_aYUMd0XW_fEPTW5grxAqJyDA25wSW1zpvP1igAt0y-XYP5C-ZEVumrc0WM5g9LNOu9SZY4t2Qbesoy2BY2FnrhZczXGkzUtI3mrOKvKe4Y74u84S3G6ik/w400-h224/KalalochN_All.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div>This erosion is also readily apparent in photos, and has impacts. The photo at the top of this post comes from the northern section of the beach near to the creek, and the access stairs to the beach here have been closed for a few months. Here is photo, from a different perspective, of this section of bluff taken on 2 September 2016:</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7Cb_L9E_pUOcjadEjdDDx_RebehaRHThn71u9NvCox28LBSGidEqnMshEIdqohAhdzjJNiUZZLkcqbUaBERtywnyNE3PNZGFSzj0QJFMIZai447DsY4ExfryEKGK_8ljVnjCBea5U2xg/s2048/IMG_0051.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7Cb_L9E_pUOcjadEjdDDx_RebehaRHThn71u9NvCox28LBSGidEqnMshEIdqohAhdzjJNiUZZLkcqbUaBERtywnyNE3PNZGFSzj0QJFMIZai447DsY4ExfryEKGK_8ljVnjCBea5U2xg/s320/IMG_0051.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><br /> and more or less the identical location and perspective from just a few days ago, on 12 March 2021:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJbk8Ncaimh-1WLKcm1BiwIQDHJ8xQtt4r_Zr3Q72TCd8POgumDrAzWxfKMTm2LzmIrKvLsy4ZAtXc8Z90bYYw9LJ_VimaW0j5yi0-8uPjH3P83JkLAyAyfdxMVKcY9YFY9pursfYDIxA/s2048/IMG_0020.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJbk8Ncaimh-1WLKcm1BiwIQDHJ8xQtt4r_Zr3Q72TCd8POgumDrAzWxfKMTm2LzmIrKvLsy4ZAtXc8Z90bYYw9LJ_VimaW0j5yi0-8uPjH3P83JkLAyAyfdxMVKcY9YFY9pursfYDIxA/s320/IMG_0020.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Its important to note that, unlike beaches, bluffs can't recover naturally. In other words bluffs don't have any natural mechanism by which erosion is counter-acted. This has really important implications in regards to attempts to manage bluff erosion using defensive approaches...its incredibly hard and expensive, and failure of the structure over time is more or less assured. <br /><div><br /><p><br /></p></div></div></div>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-45201809097536892902021-02-22T14:16:00.011-08:002021-03-01T10:17:36.275-08:00January 12th was a widespread and damaging event along Washington's shorelines<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinKVwxMvw5lwWRhjcdF-cAf8yKlLuqglMvH8PK3uoVU6npkQCji6iFh2xlbFHNaASh-e8JJUygphV1Y2Me5FYZXnJ-Ug2VwqlbGjZE4c6ZymzRgnUewOWwoEqNtH2IMiyyx4_GtoDmSt0/s2048/IMG_20210112_125738949.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinKVwxMvw5lwWRhjcdF-cAf8yKlLuqglMvH8PK3uoVU6npkQCji6iFh2xlbFHNaASh-e8JJUygphV1Y2Me5FYZXnJ-Ug2VwqlbGjZE4c6ZymzRgnUewOWwoEqNtH2IMiyyx4_GtoDmSt0/s320/IMG_20210112_125738949.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p>Various reports of flooding and erosion started rolling after an interesting coastal storm on or around January 12th, and what struck me most was how wide-scale those reports were...in terms of the number of different areas on Washington's Coast, in the Strait of Juan de Fuca and in Puget Sound that were affected in some way. It really seemed to be a mix of processes (i.e. a high tide, storm surge, swell waves and locally-generated wind waves) expressed in various combinations around the state. </p><p>On the coast and in the Strait of Juan de Fuca there were definitely waves that coincided with a reasonably high tide. - the shot at top is from the base of Ediz Hook right around high tide, illustrating the size of the waves beating on the upper beach of Ediz Hook. However, around the inside of Ediz Hook waves weren't a factor, but the tide was high enough (the tide gauge in Port Angeles maxed out arund 2.8 ft above MHHW, <a href="https://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2019/01/anatomy-of-coastal-storm-december-20.html">which is indeed pretty high</a>) to float most of the large wood on the upper beach:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dwVesGYPcPfvUb9u44S82hFUj5vrU0dSypbW85sCjhFFA4BZ1XfB0BGtNDsQa6DDgf-dqHQ2tq7fWUiUUD-EQ' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div>Reports of erosion came in from a variety of places, including Kalaloch out on the coast:</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgal6j-jzeU8P9GLEgXzlk4_VAHzPgnpJSqVzhCpVqNoSTLh0qj2DUtVt7xvbxw9qXvQDLaYX37-ZbivefSyd7PMVF5yZwnlfHA3FekV9jR94oXor4FhCHHeNk1x4R1Nzz1TC-r8FwAcQE/s2048/IMG_20210116_094113767_HDR.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgal6j-jzeU8P9GLEgXzlk4_VAHzPgnpJSqVzhCpVqNoSTLh0qj2DUtVt7xvbxw9qXvQDLaYX37-ZbivefSyd7PMVF5yZwnlfHA3FekV9jR94oXor4FhCHHeNk1x4R1Nzz1TC-r8FwAcQE/s320/IMG_20210116_094113767_HDR.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div>and North Beach near Port Townsend:<div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH_LD_GP4SPjqzH1IXMU3In_AsF_qWq0k9YmFWLeG2QG80DaihTe-DUFMf8EAjqjGlEGb4Hsdc5mKMC9v-HZGwIri8XqB2A1VEaJvPc1BF2myWu5_WRDNEMuh2vILmf1_s1b6YHpxkUu4/s2048/PXL_20210212_011044766.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1152" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH_LD_GP4SPjqzH1IXMU3In_AsF_qWq0k9YmFWLeG2QG80DaihTe-DUFMf8EAjqjGlEGb4Hsdc5mKMC9v-HZGwIri8XqB2A1VEaJvPc1BF2myWu5_WRDNEMuh2vILmf1_s1b6YHpxkUu4/s320/PXL_20210212_011044766.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo Credit: Bob Simmons/WSU Jefferson County Extension</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>At Rialto on the coast it wasn't erosion so much as giant wood being thrown like matchsticks on to the National Park Service parking lot:</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzkfEHZK6F4ifDZ6PALeHjQ3uLXDNGxeqHRLNVfyNDO2U9Mfx12Pztfulncldwsa1GAtPxxPGxLd8-79NTDRZnzoL3_EHwemPK7EyxAwCVDwNCVIR_mbeujsSOIYSzexXtP2aGoC2dNes/s1421/1459.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1066" data-original-width="1421" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzkfEHZK6F4ifDZ6PALeHjQ3uLXDNGxeqHRLNVfyNDO2U9Mfx12Pztfulncldwsa1GAtPxxPGxLd8-79NTDRZnzoL3_EHwemPK7EyxAwCVDwNCVIR_mbeujsSOIYSzexXtP2aGoC2dNes/s320/1459.jpeg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo credit: Olympic National Park</td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div>and a subsequent analysis I did for Olympic National Park (see figure at bottom for the nerd stuff) suggested that the particular combination of tidal water level, storm surge and wave run-up combined to lead to one of the higher <a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSEC34B1175S/abstract">total water levels</a> of the last ~13 years at this site. </div><div><br /></div><div>Reports from Westport were similar - overtopping of the sea-wall that protects the marina district, and extensive flooding. This video by the owner of <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/BzSVwyWmHs4MNCCw7">Stiches Quilt and Craft Shop</a> provides a first hand view of the scene:</div><div><br /></div><div>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/F7dRgcw38X0" width="560"></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div>In Puget Sound its not clear to me how much waves played a role, but I did get at least a few reports of flooding, like this example from the Maple Grove neighborhood on Camano Island:</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyWDvsElevV9_9MusB10PNGY-hIiiIU-Do2nHfLs5GzV6Cl8YYgdyivtrqns9uKheSNnczmZICXpVFqwMsxK-kvqpwBoYsdBd1KVWNi2WseV2qjLXAxtStpbcFtTIt5p9TBKCWy1-naeY/s2048/IMG_0702.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyWDvsElevV9_9MusB10PNGY-hIiiIU-Do2nHfLs5GzV6Cl8YYgdyivtrqns9uKheSNnczmZICXpVFqwMsxK-kvqpwBoYsdBd1KVWNi2WseV2qjLXAxtStpbcFtTIt5p9TBKCWy1-naeY/s320/IMG_0702.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo credit: Joan Schrammeck</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>The highest water level recorded in Friday Harbor (the nearest tide gauge to this site) was about<a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=9449880&units=standard&bdate=20210113&edate=20210113&timezone=LST/LDT&datum=MHHW&interval=6&action="> 2.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water</a>...a good high tide but certainly <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/est/curves.shtml?stnid=9449880">nowhere near a record breaker</a>, suggesting that wind likely played some role in forcing this flooding in Puget Sound...<br /><div><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrwE4KZhHrYQMCvzHa74Omqc3mDRPS5x7QHLB0LE89YJaIA_jX3FmQvfLM4oiV3OzpaSFEyArJsGXjwLIWVhYxhPEOOIXd23Pd7OVDvgV8HBNsEhpx_HZD4T6aASVPlTz23_5g_9PqUYs/s1920/Rialto_TWLEstimate.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="911" data-original-width="1920" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrwE4KZhHrYQMCvzHa74Omqc3mDRPS5x7QHLB0LE89YJaIA_jX3FmQvfLM4oiV3OzpaSFEyArJsGXjwLIWVhYxhPEOOIXd23Pd7OVDvgV8HBNsEhpx_HZD4T6aASVPlTz23_5g_9PqUYs/s320/Rialto_TWLEstimate.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Modelled total water level for Rialto using still water levels recorded at the La Push tide gauge, coupled with run-up estimates modelled using equations from <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378383906000044?via%3Dihub">Stockdon et al 2006</a>. The "Parking Lot Berm Elevation Threshold" is an average estimate of the maximum elevation of the berm seaward of the parking lot at Rialto Beach derived from my own survey data. This analysis suggests that total water level has only exceeded that berm elevation a handful of times since 2008.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><br /></div><p><br /></p></div></div>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-53294497459917723762020-11-18T13:21:00.008-08:002020-11-22T14:00:51.389-08:00Anatomy of a coastal storm: 17 November 2020<p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dzhhbYoOvPC7-st6VrOe2xBlyDyz3_mHPQUluOlsCA6y-MaLLhhaL78-omTpPIXWUJWZutBmGq60hoVdAhG9Q' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div><p>I'm sitting in Friday Harbor at the moment, teaching at <a href="https://fhl.uw.edu/courses/course-descriptions/course/marine-sedimentary-processes-research-apprenticeship-2020/">Friday Harbor Labs for the quarter</a>. Yesterday we were hit by a little storm, characterized mostly by rain and some strong-ish south winds - the video above was shot at <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/7jssNr3J2uLNfZebA">South Beach on San Juan Island</a> in the afternoon), but what made this storm notable from a coastal stand-point is its co-occurrence with a higher-than-usual astronomical tide. This led to higher-than-average water levels, something with an average annual return frequency of approximately 3 years on the coast, and maybe 1-2 years in Puget Sound. However, in some places water levels on the shoreline were exacerbated further by run-up associated with waves. </p><p>Some visuals of the event: here on San Juan Island the ocean was interacting with large wood on the very upper part of the shoreline for most of the day. Here is a time-lapse of the shoreline on South Beach covering most of the day, in which you can make out large wood getting pulled into the swash zone and moved rapidly alongshore:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dx19LEOTkzU5LfaBd-fsPTKHAAMUQ570CN8EbxdCjE1W9gQqKYWjfLHJoFymy2cmud4n8blBJ_wBm6-s08WGQ' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div><br />On the more protected shores <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/VTQ8KJAkb8N9RQMQA">on the other side of Cattle Point</a>, where wood tends to accumulate lower on the shoreline, large wood was afloat, but not moving anywhere as rapidly:<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dxq-upbAQ3w2dBQBOnNXq7t1WoyKvlvHXjO2tkdmknHEquAXLCPG32J3fgBACX6-fziHJ4hgR7_Rjzwl_P2aQ' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div><div><br /></div>So lets look at some numbers. First off here are the magnitudes (in meters relative to Mean Higher High Water) and times of the peak still water level, as measured <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.html?region=Washington">at tide gauges in coastal Washington</a>:<div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEituHS61QnPHlroqCDsc562r4PCDwR4n0eajvlMhmlpm_dCuqGxXwh_M2v0nYzowrMYjSyt_aAHtuy6lwfCiDnjlN0eb2OtAbvOyDOcFTicOlLaWH0f_ofog29935xBoSlyAykChD85fas/s1653/PeakWL.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="993" data-original-width="1653" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEituHS61QnPHlroqCDsc562r4PCDwR4n0eajvlMhmlpm_dCuqGxXwh_M2v0nYzowrMYjSyt_aAHtuy6lwfCiDnjlN0eb2OtAbvOyDOcFTicOlLaWH0f_ofog29935xBoSlyAykChD85fas/s320/PeakWL.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Peak still water level measured at tide gauges in coastal Washington on 17 November 2020. The time of the peak is given on top of each bar.</td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div><div>So a few things jump out. First, the peak water levels, relative to each stations local MHHW, were much higher on the coast than in Puget Sound (addendum: Check out <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=5054275267946313">this footage</a> from Westport, Washington!). Next, the time of that peak, perhaps not surprisingly, was generally associated with the peak of the largest high tide of the day...on the coast and in the Strait the highest astronomical tide occurred in the afternoon, whereas in Puget Sound it was in the morning. The one exception was in Port Townsend, where the highest astronomical tide occurred in the morning around 7am, but the peak water level occurred in the afternoon. This happened because of the extra push provided by the non-tidal residual...which brings us to the second big process that occurred yesterday, a substantial non-tidal residual associated with low pressure and wind, that elevated water level well above predicted:</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAX-UgIAU0AJeRY9tas42ouOCs-VDRRpBCvF7ic7bhyphenhyphen44-bYiZUb77QGmpspGbWBsdACKdtEYMP0rPOCYrxq1zaGHVTb22gBFk5BZ44Mqh6VWr4Y2_r5hgZ5aRXGNLEwI9PhOsZqctkpc/s1653/Magnitudes.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="993" data-original-width="1653" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAX-UgIAU0AJeRY9tas42ouOCs-VDRRpBCvF7ic7bhyphenhyphen44-bYiZUb77QGmpspGbWBsdACKdtEYMP0rPOCYrxq1zaGHVTb22gBFk5BZ44Mqh6VWr4Y2_r5hgZ5aRXGNLEwI9PhOsZqctkpc/s320/Magnitudes.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Peak non-tidal residual (NTR) measured at tide gauges in coastal Washington on 17 November 2020. The time of the peak is given on top of each bar.</td></tr></tbody></table><br />So again, the NTRs varied between the coast and Puget Sound, and were relatively large - approaching 1 meter on the coast, and 0.6 meters in Puget Sound. The timing of the peaks was also quite interesting...generally the largest NTRs occurred on the coast in the morning, and in the early afternoon in Puget Sound. This turned out to be really important, as the peak NTRs were out of phase with the highest tides in each location. This is good, as it helped to reduce the peak water levels for the day. If they had been in phase we would have definitely seen some water level records broken in Washington State yesterday.</div><div><br /></div><div>To assess the influence of waves on south-facing shorelines I was also able to survey water level elevations on South Beach right around 8am...and found that the run-up elevations were ~0.81 meters relative to MHHW. At the same time the tide gauge in Port Townsend was reading a still water level of 0.45 m MHHW, and in Friday Harbor 0.64 m MHHW...suggesting that wave run-up was responsible for elevating water level on the shoreline an additional ~0.2 to 0.4 m. I suspect that this component was a bit higher later, as the wind picked up quite a bit.<br /><br /><div><br /><p><br /></p></div></div>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-11199408427067874012020-08-05T16:25:00.004-07:002020-08-05T16:25:32.462-07:00Dungeness Spit: Shockingly stable, but also maybe shrinking?<div>Every year since 2013 I've been able to <a href="https://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2013/06/surveying-dungeness-spit.html" target="_blank">get out and collect shoreline profile data on Dungeness Spit</a>, along roughly 35 cross-shore oriented transect lines spread out evenly along the length of the spit:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWr09DL64_YVQ-HnE5lyzcTU9eXNga552X3yGwFBKNFTHO_LEJsIUNVCYp5rlwH1JX8iy6fEqTqMQyt5cf6RuskhWrL7dEQmNKiDIVAegPY9nAJn8ieE1cOjRHgz5cSmPVwmn-5ydzixo/s2048/TopoTargetLines.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1583" data-original-width="2048" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWr09DL64_YVQ-HnE5lyzcTU9eXNga552X3yGwFBKNFTHO_LEJsIUNVCYp5rlwH1JX8iy6fEqTqMQyt5cf6RuskhWrL7dEQmNKiDIVAegPY9nAJn8ieE1cOjRHgz5cSmPVwmn-5ydzixo/w400-h309/TopoTargetLines.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div>Dungeness Spit is an awesome place to study the dynamics of spit morphology - its long and largely un-modified, with un-modified bluffs to the west that presumably supply sediment for its on-going growth. And grow it has. <a href="https://journals.flvc.org/jcr/article/view/77627/75090" target="_blank">Schwartz et al. (1987)</a> estimated an average annual rate of progradation of the spit of 4.4. m/yr, based on an analysis of 4 data-sets (either survey maps or aerial photos) collected between 1855 and 1985. I walked into this effort thinking that what I would learn about spit progradation would be how much that average rate of positive growth varied annually. Indeed, after my first year of surveying (2013) I could see that the end of the spit grew by roughly 5 meters or so based on a comparison to an <a href="http://pugetsoundlidar.ess.washington.edu/lidardata/proj_reports/Jefferson_Clallam_LiDAR_Report.pdf" target="_blank">aerial LiDAR dataset collected in 2012</a>:</div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEPjzXiEMdjfVSPvbJ-1NXn51BwlI6wmHBKOATlYLRtKwqV58IcMYNp1-XIC_I5lBq-Oj2uKEUzsQLT28QKZjUXEYg0042crA1Uod0N7NGmM54hro8jdhrecmxJNSE7amSqdQSzmCC5Uk/s2048/DungSpit3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1143" data-original-width="2048" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEPjzXiEMdjfVSPvbJ-1NXn51BwlI6wmHBKOATlYLRtKwqV58IcMYNp1-XIC_I5lBq-Oj2uKEUzsQLT28QKZjUXEYg0042crA1Uod0N7NGmM54hro8jdhrecmxJNSE7amSqdQSzmCC5Uk/w400-h223/DungSpit3.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Intertidal profile data along a transect bisecting the very tip of Dungeness Spit for 2012, 2013 and 2014. 2012 data are from aerial LiDAR, 2013 and 2014 are from topographic GNSS surveys.</td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div> Exactly as expected. Since then, though...things have been a little different, with an average annualized erosion rate on the end of the spit of roughly 8 meters/yr. That is ~25 feet per year of erosion on average:</div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkcfFNfq3s2GI9I3q-2lx63P-Jhuw9zG6LILWqDd1hjoF3emN-vstKiWqL7Myf_wImw9gblmtryMNJwo3L_C91nmqccHhVUIijFaifK5vNdyru0xRSFomjlsS1r_LJFdDKYJeCXy8R9yo/s1920/DungSpit1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="911" data-original-width="1920" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkcfFNfq3s2GI9I3q-2lx63P-Jhuw9zG6LILWqDd1hjoF3emN-vstKiWqL7Myf_wImw9gblmtryMNJwo3L_C91nmqccHhVUIijFaifK5vNdyru0xRSFomjlsS1r_LJFdDKYJeCXy8R9yo/w400-h190/DungSpit1.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div>Same location and data as are shown above, but for 2013-2020, all GNSS surveys.<br /></div></td></tr></tbody></table> Instead of finding myself analyzing the annual variability in spit growth, I'm trying to interpret the annual variability in erosion...and it does vary. Some years there is more...and some years virtually none. But the trend here is unmistakable, and fascinating, and vexing. What is going on? </div><div><br /></div><div>Its worth noting that this erosion at the very end of the spit is NOT representative of the spit as a whole. Largely the rest of the spit, especially the long skinny "strand" connected to land, is astonishingly stable. I started out this study hypothesizing that I might see a very slow rate of migration of this part of the spit, associated with storm-driven overwash. But I don't. Year after year the beach and crest are in an almost identical position despite being regularly battered in the winter:</div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2ciGl5FWpCVbWKjsI-3Tm5IrUSys8hRk8ZiiGMzbw5X1KFvD4kPaydG9eas-YdxA_cewe46_yDk2j6_T2nbu3k0qf4pwK75RA8I6anKaJ6cMlFc81i7h2B711Mex-dsuoh-2yelrbMOw/s1920/DungSpit2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="911" data-original-width="1920" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2ciGl5FWpCVbWKjsI-3Tm5IrUSys8hRk8ZiiGMzbw5X1KFvD4kPaydG9eas-YdxA_cewe46_yDk2j6_T2nbu3k0qf4pwK75RA8I6anKaJ6cMlFc81i7h2B711Mex-dsuoh-2yelrbMOw/w400-h190/DungSpit2.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">GNSS survey-based profile data along a transect at roughly mile 2.5 on Dungeness Spit. <br /></td></tr></tbody></table> So what is going on? I'm not totally sure, and in fact I don't really have too many ideas that I can even use to formulate a proposed mechanism. And there don't appear to be too many analogous observations that I can find from the limited number of papers out there describing spit dynamics. There is at least one exception, though - <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0037073808000523" target="_blank">this paper</a> describes a spit on <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/uVjT2dx4iJ2Bg4jj7" target="_blank">the shoreline of the North Sea</a> that, based on sedimentary evidence, has grown in fits and starts, with periods of growth alternating with periods of erosion. In a conversation with <a href="https://westerntoday.wwu.edu/news/in-memoriam-maury-schwartz-1925-2013" target="_blank">Maury Schwartz</a> some years ago, he described to me a model of spit growth that required that the spit build out a sub-tidal platform before it could grow sub-aerially...which would manifest in a data set like mine as periods of no- or low-growth punctuated with periods of rapid growth. That's not really what I see in my data...but Maury thought hard about these things and I'm still trying to fit my observations into that model.</div><div><br /></div><div>Any other ideas out there?</div>Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-5006851014995875242020-05-28T12:12:00.000-07:002020-05-28T12:12:01.331-07:00Low tide on Tongue PointI wanted to try to visit Tongue Point during a low tide this spring. This <a href="https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/Prodesc/proddesc_5357.htm" target="_blank">basalt outcrop (part of the Crescent Formation)</a> is generally a pretty popular and heavily impacted tide-pooling area, but I figured that since the adjacent campground has been shut down, it might have reduced some of the pressure on the intertidal community. I made the trip with McHenry and Theo as an alternative to the usual at-home schooling we are doing, and we ended up spending most of our time <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/N51bDymzcRPULMuv6" target="_blank">here</a>. This is a bit of what we were able to see in an hour or so of rooting around. <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiks5L2QK_sNUMcLeW42tZ0osJkIk1Be-dC5RDy-wsUDTEfuKOa6V4qA-qxX1v_4xEFiOHU7OXxQPJbVO2Z1ervcqS7m1jWkPXhkbuuUG1RhyphenhyphenHCJFxN9PsFOqDycv8KsQ_LwcTTi4jwIZDu/s1600/IMG_20200527_093310826.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiks5L2QK_sNUMcLeW42tZ0osJkIk1Be-dC5RDy-wsUDTEfuKOa6V4qA-qxX1v_4xEFiOHU7OXxQPJbVO2Z1ervcqS7m1jWkPXhkbuuUG1RhyphenhyphenHCJFxN9PsFOqDycv8KsQ_LwcTTi4jwIZDu/s400/IMG_20200527_093310826.jpg" width="300" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Carnivorous Nucella sp. (Dog Whelk) and eggs</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIjKRSq8cdtwEX7XZfRM8MV5esAWFdqZKMISOQIu1tkx8k-BSRRzunNpWJBs-6VBRnSKbaKfADB9_PxEfUmHRhR38MW2eSGqz7xyWMV0rUoxGZnHIrtwy0AwiQnbjiSvPYigGYhI0tQNuL/s1600/IMG_20200527_093401066.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIjKRSq8cdtwEX7XZfRM8MV5esAWFdqZKMISOQIu1tkx8k-BSRRzunNpWJBs-6VBRnSKbaKfADB9_PxEfUmHRhR38MW2eSGqz7xyWMV0rUoxGZnHIrtwy0AwiQnbjiSvPYigGYhI0tQNuL/s400/IMG_20200527_093401066.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Adult Pisaster ochraceous, the only one we observed</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKkTNDq5ohRqtLWCeVDkdO2gZh9tGjHoSw4lOew_VyBDHNeVFLyM2_MRyreYiBnLPK7W9xe6QEs8DnZftS0kQQoXILy-I81f3YRGE0tDwCySiKTi_VE_gBT1g_QeGbnGqgEgg0BYWFKJnj/s1600/IMG_20200527_094818487.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKkTNDq5ohRqtLWCeVDkdO2gZh9tGjHoSw4lOew_VyBDHNeVFLyM2_MRyreYiBnLPK7W9xe6QEs8DnZftS0kQQoXILy-I81f3YRGE0tDwCySiKTi_VE_gBT1g_QeGbnGqgEgg0BYWFKJnj/s400/IMG_20200527_094818487.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Halosaccion grandiforme (Sea Sac!), a super widely distributed red algae</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgefDYnfRfY_SI8BowGOe-9HseYOaPN6A73oL83qyPYE00XsYnhoNA5rpch4OEC2H7i0VEXYxZTZ8owzbN6T-voTN5XDzld7QAMlg-oDCemmXn8HtVfj5X6erC-QOFrRDaNoDyI_ryKilC1/s1600/IMG_20200527_094838758.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgefDYnfRfY_SI8BowGOe-9HseYOaPN6A73oL83qyPYE00XsYnhoNA5rpch4OEC2H7i0VEXYxZTZ8owzbN6T-voTN5XDzld7QAMlg-oDCemmXn8HtVfj5X6erC-QOFrRDaNoDyI_ryKilC1/s400/IMG_20200527_094838758.jpg" width="300" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A rosette of Pollicipes polymerus (Goose barnacles)</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwaJshaqxk-kJJY-ZSWoYwb1VrqytegCTfg6KWrm_0jVJExaYVbcfvyCc-F7IsKzv-xv0V_zl8nyB-Dcp_9F2O_S4F2laqqlIQ8DjasKBERmCt2EdX1q13-lNWMiSG9MVzjTvf5PyAoqS2/s1600/IMG_20200527_101156626.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwaJshaqxk-kJJY-ZSWoYwb1VrqytegCTfg6KWrm_0jVJExaYVbcfvyCc-F7IsKzv-xv0V_zl8nyB-Dcp_9F2O_S4F2laqqlIQ8DjasKBERmCt2EdX1q13-lNWMiSG9MVzjTvf5PyAoqS2/s400/IMG_20200527_101156626.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Anthopleura xanthogrammica (Giant Green Sea Anenome)</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj632SweYfZD0E1J5I2-1gRL7RkMfWr_rn9yEZD3vpgPmGj4MCGfnypFfBs8GmuQ5zuHrJxsE-BVzth-eB7Tcqc6OI2xUsFzTqcY-hO6lLf3cO29uoo7vq5HACCjJykjWYatDtWmemOOY-u/s1600/IMG_20200527_101630701.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj632SweYfZD0E1J5I2-1gRL7RkMfWr_rn9yEZD3vpgPmGj4MCGfnypFfBs8GmuQ5zuHrJxsE-BVzth-eB7Tcqc6OI2xUsFzTqcY-hO6lLf3cO29uoo7vq5HACCjJykjWYatDtWmemOOY-u/s400/IMG_20200527_101630701.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tectura scutum (most likely; Plate Limpet), grazing an encrusting coralline algae (maybe Lithothamnion sp.?)</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj73x0zrRJQVlwlqiyGgvIDx4tTvD9DsrwermrCfV0n03Fqj8F5urEk1DnMy_z8BWeKLzcm5ICjYJYU1n_n8GnxTRGxXgj2brjaP7-czu0cN0-ooX4y5gsOCek39oYTYyq9Xpz4gnnIa_Iv/s1600/IMG_20200527_101732828_HDR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj73x0zrRJQVlwlqiyGgvIDx4tTvD9DsrwermrCfV0n03Fqj8F5urEk1DnMy_z8BWeKLzcm5ICjYJYU1n_n8GnxTRGxXgj2brjaP7-czu0cN0-ooX4y5gsOCek39oYTYyq9Xpz4gnnIa_Iv/s400/IMG_20200527_101732828_HDR.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A Mopalia sp. (probably muscosa; Hairy Chiton)</td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8gqYpunYmp7X7sVexX4X8DstzzHXH0T785-fkVbgVN30a4im2V7d3Q3ddjlq-nO6FXepbL-294zQQEITdkAQDw-ESU4Tj4auScQkk2YIoXOBeHkvIZvjkVsxYU8IgEtnG6G7Nl9hNVM-e/s1600/IMG_20200527_101935899.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8gqYpunYmp7X7sVexX4X8DstzzHXH0T785-fkVbgVN30a4im2V7d3Q3ddjlq-nO6FXepbL-294zQQEITdkAQDw-ESU4Tj4auScQkk2YIoXOBeHkvIZvjkVsxYU8IgEtnG6G7Nl9hNVM-e/s400/IMG_20200527_101935899.jpg" width="300" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A pot of gold! Egregia menziesii (Feather Boa kelp) and Hedophyllum sessile (I think; Sea Cabbage kelp)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOiId-iRjhT9kLNUReGPoVKnSrIxv8KZRC-C7lnR8qg9nR8A1JkAnmy3o_D_QsgGgGMKBHj2KC0u7b1d9V7SnFQZBMdhP1lmRZ7FgEEy0Yrfkrxzqu0XQ2V4nmNyQV5nJfNPCt8CKOOyey/s1600/IMG_20200527_104339452_HDR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOiId-iRjhT9kLNUReGPoVKnSrIxv8KZRC-C7lnR8qg9nR8A1JkAnmy3o_D_QsgGgGMKBHj2KC0u7b1d9V7SnFQZBMdhP1lmRZ7FgEEy0Yrfkrxzqu0XQ2V4nmNyQV5nJfNPCt8CKOOyey/s400/IMG_20200527_104339452_HDR.jpg" width="300" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Anthopleura sp., likely Anthopleura sola. My field team does a lot of "feeding" of anemones on these trips, but this one came by this meal all on its own. Cool to see.</td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc-hbW05f2XiV_-d_7_ccuC-V05_ZgPFKV01NC47WmzT0zlUxamMTe7cTgKlWVODr4PyjhYBD3Sh6_-fB2u2a_ZsP4DtoLpV8XlZOcQgOEWxXHY07XnAkaWVZUPkaKgBV1v5dYYmiCeDYn/s1600/IMG_20200527_104423976.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc-hbW05f2XiV_-d_7_ccuC-V05_ZgPFKV01NC47WmzT0zlUxamMTe7cTgKlWVODr4PyjhYBD3Sh6_-fB2u2a_ZsP4DtoLpV8XlZOcQgOEWxXHY07XnAkaWVZUPkaKgBV1v5dYYmiCeDYn/s400/IMG_20200527_104423976.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Acanthodoris nanaimoensis, the Nanaimo dorid. Our only nudi on this trip. </td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhycCK4uCkD_mRbgvY0C_gLRFNL_-m-tseJh5KZanUcOk63Dgua6i62E2R8drBPehrp_-ahRlx_esQ5PpgdHV17zitqCTN4CRgJTjFGRx9HWz-BJiUX8NR7ERlp36lIBVzT1zi-sl90ACP9/s1600/IMG_20200527_104826828_HDR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhycCK4uCkD_mRbgvY0C_gLRFNL_-m-tseJh5KZanUcOk63Dgua6i62E2R8drBPehrp_-ahRlx_esQ5PpgdHV17zitqCTN4CRgJTjFGRx9HWz-BJiUX8NR7ERlp36lIBVzT1zi-sl90ACP9/s400/IMG_20200527_104826828_HDR.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Eudystilia sp., probably vancoverii. A Pacific coast feather duster worm. One of my favorites </td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiX-LUOoNKkbpZvkwuqm5igEIC4Xt_gkIZzlyBS-LM-j7RTjx7wnpZXiKRrgUotxg3XQfCgTWsiEuUuKCO4LCZOSPR8PjNYOKlz6VfognG5hNivrX8Rc4ttHdcU88UBJEULC2lNZsEYyV8/s1600/IMG_20200527_105011635.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiX-LUOoNKkbpZvkwuqm5igEIC4Xt_gkIZzlyBS-LM-j7RTjx7wnpZXiKRrgUotxg3XQfCgTWsiEuUuKCO4LCZOSPR8PjNYOKlz6VfognG5hNivrX8Rc4ttHdcU88UBJEULC2lNZsEYyV8/s400/IMG_20200527_105011635.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Haliclona sp. I think (This one doesn't appear to have a common name...but it needs one). Super cool sponge</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPiG0O_pd3hJg-6PnQoyBEJMDbeLB6cm6b7foXJtdzoRghB8kidYfjqywrUdThPl24uAclkDaWK5itLZGLtX5tzXD8ZyWVpiZeGSDyLt3UuCy68NEIHqooM-kw94w6zCRRu42QkJD2tldn/s400/IMG_20200527_105714658.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="300" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Diodora aspera (Keyhole Limpet). This one was in a group of maybe six individuals. Haven't seen a congregation like that before</td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPiG0O_pd3hJg-6PnQoyBEJMDbeLB6cm6b7foXJtdzoRghB8kidYfjqywrUdThPl24uAclkDaWK5itLZGLtX5tzXD8ZyWVpiZeGSDyLt3UuCy68NEIHqooM-kw94w6zCRRu42QkJD2tldn/s1600/IMG_20200527_105714658.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPiG0O_pd3hJg-6PnQoyBEJMDbeLB6cm6b7foXJtdzoRghB8kidYfjqywrUdThPl24uAclkDaWK5itLZGLtX5tzXD8ZyWVpiZeGSDyLt3UuCy68NEIHqooM-kw94w6zCRRu42QkJD2tldn/s1600/IMG_20200527_105714658.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv5qP2z9gbXZ4iLYtOTxRsPbQwMaUH0eHr_yghhtlz7N1HPYHHzeq3HFibCj-4Dd2FHH8S2xNGmWOZX_mBdEw_9Ac6VhueJg4zhyphenhyphenKyTUzFdcyQd7VED6JRrTaxY4KME7JvBL1-nSM3bfRO/s1600/IMG_20200527_110033452_HDR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv5qP2z9gbXZ4iLYtOTxRsPbQwMaUH0eHr_yghhtlz7N1HPYHHzeq3HFibCj-4Dd2FHH8S2xNGmWOZX_mBdEw_9Ac6VhueJg4zhyphenhyphenKyTUzFdcyQd7VED6JRrTaxY4KME7JvBL1-nSM3bfRO/s400/IMG_20200527_110033452_HDR.jpg" width="300" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Juvenile Henricia sp. (Mottled Henricia; probably sanguinolenta?) I can't keep track of the Henricia's :)</td></tr>
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<br />Ian Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15302890370852456293noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-48558258141101834292020-05-14T23:08:00.001-07:002020-05-14T23:08:23.172-07:00Diving into the Oligocene oceanA few weeks back we headed out for a hike along the shoreline near the <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/2vAF5FnG9NNQAEwM7">West Twin River</a>, on a beautiful night just before Washington's stay at home order kicked in. As we were poking along, we came upon some of the usual bivalve fossils that are quite common in the area:<br />
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but also ran into some quite nice examples of fossils of a type I'd seen before, but less frequently...and I'd never quite been able to figure out what I was looking at. To me they look sort of kelpy:</div>
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But as I understand it kelp fossils are pretty rare. Also, if you look closely, many of these fossils have a lot of internal structure going on, in a way that kelp don't:</div>
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So I reached out to <a href="https://environment.uw.edu/faculty/elizabeth-nesbitt/">Liz Nesbitt at the University of Washington</a>, who I had the good fortune to meet doing some field work at Discovery Bay a few years ago. Liz has to be the foremost expert on the paleontology of Washington's coast, and so I was very delighted that she replied to my email quickly, and not at all surprised that she could explain what I had seen. </div>
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Turns out that these are teredolites (<a href="http://www.clastics.com/teredolites.htm">here</a> is a nice example of some similar fossils from Wyoming) or fossilized wood that has been bored by clams of the genus Teredinidae, commonly known as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shipworms">shipworms</a>. </div>
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Liz Nesbitt is also an expert on the <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/04q5f9cr">chronology of the strata that these fossils are associated with</a>, and she places these in the Oligocene, a time in which what are now the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=88&v=xaj_J_3YJMc&feature=emb_logo">Olympic Mountains were just emerging from the ocean fringing the North American continent</a>. Where I found these fossils was presumably a warm (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oligocene#/media/File:All_palaeotemps.png">the Oligocene was substantially warmer than today's world</a>) fringing sea. In fact, one of the<a href="https://www.washington.edu/news/1998/08/31/museum-displays-earliest-known-fossil-of-a-toothless-whale/"> oldest known whale fossils</a> emerged from the rock near where we found these teredolites. </div>
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<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><br />Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-72793856761091237822020-05-06T14:41:00.000-07:002020-05-06T14:41:08.442-07:00Dive below the surface near the Elwha River delta<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I am incredibly fortunate to be one of the few people that actually got to observe, with my own eyes, the incredible changes to the marine ecosystem that happened as a result of the Elwha dam removals. Every year for 10 years I spent 30 to 40 hours underwater visiting the same sites, getting to know (and counting/measuring) their residents and their contours. Of course we did what scientists do, and <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0187742">published our findings as a scientific paper</a>. However, some of the changes we observed are much more viscerally relatable when you can, well, see them. So last year we put the finishing touches on <a href="https://elwhanearshore.ocean.washington.edu/">a new website and interactive map</a> that is designed to tell the story of the Elwha underwater. In particular it features videos that we collected at all of our sites, that allow you to watch our sites change as we did, year after year. Click on the map and enjoy!<br />
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<a href="https://elwhanearshore.ocean.washington.edu/story/Dive_Map.html"><img border="0" data-original-height="547" data-original-width="1119" height="195" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH_Fni0LFqGZpca-omGbrPdzQ_xuLqEPEyf1WpS_rxItwb7kdNauqAK_dl3SgCuDB3DvO3VA5fMNjjNB4tMDqlMthLyYfdI7-fbBpa6lJx3F4jF2JrF2EWhl2fY8rJYUgjzW0uJEAN-jg/s400/Capture.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br />Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-75650515630215386332020-04-30T11:17:00.002-07:002020-04-30T11:17:53.267-07:00A blog about my new blogIts been a while! I'm not sure why really...other stuff going on I suppose. This will be a short one...but I wanted to use this platform to announce the launch of a new blog, <a href="https://washington-shorelines-now-then.blogspot.com/">Washington Shorelines Now and Then</a>. This is a partnership blog, started with<a href="https://www.salmonbaypaddle.com/about-salmon-bay-paddle/"> Rob Casey of Salmon Bay Paddle</a> and <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/shanon-dell-2897bb57/">Shanon Dell, in Sequim</a>. Both of these characters spend lots of time on the water, are excellent photographers and communicators, and share an interest with me in the history of Washington's shoreline. Rob and I, in fact, have been talking about doing this project for years...so its immensely satisfying to see it come to something.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbwjau9e5wgUo-hLezzO_I9JSNJ5DovvXBaYUfikPGjaFQOdxjQzGDGSZlZ2VAc7FkmHsEjav9deWmdE0ETheEO2el0qHXquqoX_Ndy5YEyRLlkY4hofDsZ35Jmuvt_UAKTzJs-bsucO4/s1600/Capture.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="923" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbwjau9e5wgUo-hLezzO_I9JSNJ5DovvXBaYUfikPGjaFQOdxjQzGDGSZlZ2VAc7FkmHsEjav9deWmdE0ETheEO2el0qHXquqoX_Ndy5YEyRLlkY4hofDsZ35Jmuvt_UAKTzJs-bsucO4/s400/Capture.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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The idea is really simple. We try to collect and replicate historic views of Washington's shoreline, in order to provide a visual summary for the how Washington's shorelines have changed through time...either due to natural or anthropogenic forces. The key feature is a side-by-side comparison of the two photos - the historic and the modern:<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDGM5m9Ke9881PVOTstqTqcuAary08lnV3wEYgwBA08VBfdQQ0wJICUe8OG7-usKKO5KeYhsmarq7_5KiU47D8TVwxydkWPrgZDzdfTVf6i3QNoWShWCtqMEHoPS27V180GnzSkIbesqY/s1600/SalmonBayCharlie-Split-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1024" height="307" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDGM5m9Ke9881PVOTstqTqcuAary08lnV3wEYgwBA08VBfdQQ0wJICUe8OG7-usKKO5KeYhsmarq7_5KiU47D8TVwxydkWPrgZDzdfTVf6i3QNoWShWCtqMEHoPS27V180GnzSkIbesqY/s400/SalmonBayCharlie-Split-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Check out the post with this photo, and the photo credits, <a href="https://washington-shorelines-now-then.blogspot.com/2020/04/salmon-bay-charlie-ballard-seattle.html">here</a>.</td></tr>
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And then we add just a bit of text wrapping. <br />
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Enjoy!<br />
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<br />Ian Miller, Washington Sea Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05914752019294689467noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-75810657445623903192019-12-02T12:57:00.001-08:002019-12-02T13:00:40.198-08:00Storm impacts on the beach: 27 November 2019<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RqIeRy8rB1U" width="560"></iframe><br />
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I had a chance to poke around Ediz Hook and Port Angeles Harbor a bit around high tide on 27 November 2019, during a strong northeast wind that coincided with high tide. Waves were breaking over the coastal defenses on Ediz Hook (video above shot from the Coho ferry), as well as on to the <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/BqKzwqXYQ4PoJzpx7" target="_blank">Olympic Discovery Trail</a>:<br />
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<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sgtg-W5y130" width="560"></iframe><br />
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and not surprisingly, led to a bit of damage along the trail:<br />
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<iframe allow="encrypted-media" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" height="671" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FOlympicDiscoveryTrail%2Fposts%2F2893636123988674&width=500" style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" width="500"></iframe><br />
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Beaches exposed to the northeast were also impacted. I just happened to collected a few beach profiles on the east side of the Elwha River delta the day before this storm, so went back out afterwards to re-occupy those transects, one collected about <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/JTRBKUrHRPA2w4dY8" target="_blank">here</a>:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR-0LUlsm62ro2eI5OjyBETd9f1USRhaP4vRC5HBTe2EZLtRCz5RyOYVCD9VRkbvPjzpojpIJTOeRUv5pgPJa9M3LiekL_w40RTEUK0pT_mjdV1swxxNussqhMV-lo5aCStWOSxjugtIVs/s1600/BluffBackedBeachErosion_v2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="764" data-original-width="1600" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR-0LUlsm62ro2eI5OjyBETd9f1USRhaP4vRC5HBTe2EZLtRCz5RyOYVCD9VRkbvPjzpojpIJTOeRUv5pgPJa9M3LiekL_w40RTEUK0pT_mjdV1swxxNussqhMV-lo5aCStWOSxjugtIVs/s320/BluffBackedBeachErosion_v2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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and another a bit further east <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/9kTjAbRX9uht3DH97" target="_blank">here</a>:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPLNZVujS_NVwSDjq37fzmnu23kGbZwIHR9UKfwexoqX9SA2rEtN70DR8_HfSktn9Gpny0gOHD_gqwWitxRaHBWlgFYTN2TKSzPAPxmdTrKxJwa-NJPfZgWDGn2yWTZBKISPTg7v_M-mJf/s1600/BluffBackedBeachErosion.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="764" data-original-width="1600" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPLNZVujS_NVwSDjq37fzmnu23kGbZwIHR9UKfwexoqX9SA2rEtN70DR8_HfSktn9Gpny0gOHD_gqwWitxRaHBWlgFYTN2TKSzPAPxmdTrKxJwa-NJPfZgWDGn2yWTZBKISPTg7v_M-mJf/s320/BluffBackedBeachErosion.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Both of these beach profiles definitely show the impact of that event on the beach. In both cases the upper beach eroded landward by anywhere between a fraction of a meter (a few feet), and up to roughly 3 meters (~10 feet). I don't typically have the opportunity to capture this kind of event-driven change, and in fact these sorts of quantitative characterizations of event-driven change on the shorelines of Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca are pretty rare...so I'm glad the opportunity came up. <br />
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The anatomy of this particular storm was interesting to me. The tide itself wasn't particularly high. The <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9444090" target="_blank">tide gauge in Port Angeles</a> maxed out at about <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=9444090&units=metric&bdate=20191127&edate=20191127&timezone=LST/LDT&datum=MHHW&interval=6&action=" target="_blank">0.3 m (~ 1 foot) above MHHW</a>:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqo38WY7wfsfoQDwthYLbEZUjNlWk7NCyKoWojEG3AKjsOpIV47ErUG3VR1jyU_BGNQ5JAwNBHk_b2IHneRD56vlXlA-zPy-wDSmEiS6Zbv1RGdi1PEk3TqDDoqvoV8V89_QP6ofbQAikb/s1600/noaanosco-opsobserved-wa.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="874" data-original-width="1200" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqo38WY7wfsfoQDwthYLbEZUjNlWk7NCyKoWojEG3AKjsOpIV47ErUG3VR1jyU_BGNQ5JAwNBHk_b2IHneRD56vlXlA-zPy-wDSmEiS6Zbv1RGdi1PEk3TqDDoqvoV8V89_QP6ofbQAikb/s320/noaanosco-opsobserved-wa.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>
and there was no storm surge associated with this event. In fact, the high tide was suppressed a little bit, probably by the outward flow of air in the Strait (since the air pressure <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?bdate=20191115&edate=20191202&units=standard&timezone=LST%2FLDT&id=9444090&interval=6" target="_blank">was low-ish during the high tide</a>). A water level of 0.3 m (~1 foot) above MHHW is nothing - we typically hit 0.3 m above MHHW <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/est/curves.shtml?stnid=9444090" target="_blank">multiple times a </a>year. What really made this event tick was wind, and in particular the <a href="https://www.ventusky.com/?p=48.17;-122.17;7&l=temperature-2m&t=20191127/21" target="_blank">strong flow of air out of the Strait</a>, that led to sustained winds measured in <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?bdate=20191127&edate=20191127&units=standard&timezone=LST%2FLDT&id=9444090&interval=6" target="_blank">Port Angeles harbor of 20 to 25 knots from the northeast</a>. The wind kicked up waves with significant wave heights <a href="https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46088" target="_blank">exceeding 1.5 meters at the NOAA buoy in the Strait of Juan de Fuca</a>, which is big, <a href="https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/view_climplot.php?station=46088&meas=wh" target="_blank">but not huge, for the Strait in November.</a> And this is really where we get to what made this event so interesting...it was the direction of the wind and waves...from the northeast...directed straight into Port Angeles Harbor, and straight at the end of Ediz Hook and the east side of the Elwha.<br />
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The waves breaking over the rip-rap on Ediz Hook (in the video at the start at this post) also provide an important bit of context. I know from my survey work out there that the crest of the rip-rap sits at an elevation of roughly 2.5 meters (~8 feet) to 3.0 meters (~9.5 feet) above MHHW. Since we know that the water level at the time, as measured at the tide gauge, was 0.3 meters (~1 foot), we also know that water was being pushed 7 feet or more above the water level at the time, up and over the crest of the rip-rap. So wave-related process, <a href="http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~chinwu/GLE401/web/Mike/Wave%20runup.htm" target="_blank">like wave run-up and set-up</a>, were really important in making this event exciting. Furthermore, we can actually use the event to characterize the magnitudes of those processes during an extreme event...and those sorts of observations are also relatively rare in Puget Sound and the Salish Sea.Ian Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15302890370852456293noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-39460321432220261852019-10-07T09:54:00.001-07:002019-10-31T13:44:12.466-07:00Elwha sand hits Ediz Hook (maybe)<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSdLZ2_SVS77gfxd8RGgUXmdD-MZlRXtzNCLyrjOrye2ED_ZdrrDK10qp6JewZThO-6tddmzk-58cz2VBTELOSlAwX0skScvhPI2dT7bfGyUhdmFZvGFrT02-srb0yIi6vCOYSDCfttaAL/s1600/DSCN3661.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSdLZ2_SVS77gfxd8RGgUXmdD-MZlRXtzNCLyrjOrye2ED_ZdrrDK10qp6JewZThO-6tddmzk-58cz2VBTELOSlAwX0skScvhPI2dT7bfGyUhdmFZvGFrT02-srb0yIi6vCOYSDCfttaAL/s320/DSCN3661.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Looking at Ediz Hook from the west, September 2013</td></tr>
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When I present about Elwha I frequently get asked about if, and how much, <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/6bJLgaLzpaPUKrmH7" target="_blank">Elwha River</a> sediment has made it to <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/Jd2iXBu2jbGdwWNJ7" target="_blank">Ediz Hook</a>. I've also addressed this question in a <a href="http://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2016/07/what-is-going-on-at-ediz-hook.html" target="_blank">previous blog</a> arguing at the time (summer of 2016) that I didn't see evidence for any Elwha influence on Ediz Hook. This year, though, I started answering that question with a bit more confidence - I think it is likely that Elwha sediment has made it to Ediz Hook in quantities adequate to lead to measurable changes on the beach. I'm going to lay out some preliminary evidence for an influence on the beach of Ediz Hook in this blog.<br />
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First off, what is the shoreline response that I'm looking for? I've framed the expected response to dam removal on the shoreline along the Elwha littoral cell as the "X-hypothesis". Essentially I am measuring two things - the location of the beach profile, and the grain size of the beach. When the dams came down we expected to see something like this:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiSqP7mMM_FQlSiSFolP3fPDFgS5O_ns_xdw_HssBR48b4NUBHOjXrulDKjEyJV_b3h6xvoTwtmnWcRV56KC1TTy32Qu3MM-FvGnYP7-5CJ4F8SDoRsLENIUgx2OYPNmphfqJV5ERRD8YS/s1600/Picture1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="577" data-original-width="688" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiSqP7mMM_FQlSiSFolP3fPDFgS5O_ns_xdw_HssBR48b4NUBHOjXrulDKjEyJV_b3h6xvoTwtmnWcRV56KC1TTy32Qu3MM-FvGnYP7-5CJ4F8SDoRsLENIUgx2OYPNmphfqJV5ERRD8YS/s320/Picture1.png" width="320" /></a></div>
in which a previously coarse eroding beach becomes finer and starts to move seaward. We definitely saw this pattern on the Elwha delta, and in fact just <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-50387-7" target="_blank">published a paper</a> focused in particular on the beach profile position part of the story (the red line in the conceptual model above).<br />
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We also expect this response to move alongshore, driven by alongshore transport processes. So, essentially, the profile response and grain size response should sort of propagate alongshore with time, something like:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSWUpxvw18npnHsr-1XKNXzyADuOFuBNAnueR_Kc3rA-2m8fw0qW8XUMrNtv76a97MsSv6AybGE1NSRAweNRwgvxZS9_z-AGKe1tz4_t-WE3UO7eMl7hQhVFksQDfSOI9HoQiBUFwYX-a_/s1600/Picture2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="457" data-original-width="994" height="147" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSWUpxvw18npnHsr-1XKNXzyADuOFuBNAnueR_Kc3rA-2m8fw0qW8XUMrNtv76a97MsSv6AybGE1NSRAweNRwgvxZS9_z-AGKe1tz4_t-WE3UO7eMl7hQhVFksQDfSOI9HoQiBUFwYX-a_/s320/Picture2.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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One of the most interesting insights from that paper is that we took a crack at <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-50387-7/figures/4" target="_blank">estimating the RATE that the dam removal response moved alongshore</a>, at least on the Elwha River delta nearest to the river mouth...and came up with an estimate of 1 meter per day. If we extrapolated that rate to Ediz Hook, which is 8.5 km from the Elwha River mouth, we wouldn't expect a response there for quite some time...around 2033. The evidence I'm going to lay out below suggests the possibility that Ediz Hook is seeing a response now. Other evidence suggests faster response rates than our paper came up with as well. The Coastal Watershed Institute, for example, <a href="http://www.coastalwatershedinstitute.org/blog/?m=201410" target="_blank">published this account</a> of beach accretion east of the delta in 2014...suggesting early slugs of sediment propagating along that shoreline that may have influenced Ediz Hook in some way.<br />
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So what is the evidence on Ediz Hook? I'm going to show summer annual beach profiles dating back to 2012, and oblique photos of the beach from three locations dating back to 2014, the first being the transect that I survey <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/wEfFtZ33wTfFDs716" target="_blank">at the very base of Ediz Hook</a>. So here, the evidence that I see is in the beach profiles:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWEYRAz7w1JpOnC1-hEEbo7tyFuTjAkHWSV5agKn3td3bzY-iIeo8Nty5epMIAiERzj2OtB3rC63APUVe-UlMdS-1hkuk8B8kQusqtnzsSeKMHx1FFvNIKJuvk9wwTUoPr2Ki277YiYZBL/s1600/ProfileBaseofHook.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1600" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWEYRAz7w1JpOnC1-hEEbo7tyFuTjAkHWSV5agKn3td3bzY-iIeo8Nty5epMIAiERzj2OtB3rC63APUVe-UlMdS-1hkuk8B8kQusqtnzsSeKMHx1FFvNIKJuvk9wwTUoPr2Ki277YiYZBL/s400/ProfileBaseofHook.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
So what I think I see here is a fairly stable beach between 2012 and 2016, but then a period of accretion between 2016 and 2018. Its not huge...the beach moved seaward by a handful of meters...but it is out of character for this beach at least based on the limited data we have. The grain size story at this site isn't quite as compelling. Here is an oblique from 2014:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSeXrWxM7rYX1hwOoJiZUhc4dfAcSPo5fFoXA-xaYAREp5JK8HPUGeqvqdwUmRtzRolNGQRryMR6X5dnrHw_Et2y41K0AS3b7xMjY18_C7F4IpMFltWrIThUSgic_wwISwhDlzlfwWT_SG/s1600/1July14_BaseofHook.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSeXrWxM7rYX1hwOoJiZUhc4dfAcSPo5fFoXA-xaYAREp5JK8HPUGeqvqdwUmRtzRolNGQRryMR6X5dnrHw_Et2y41K0AS3b7xMjY18_C7F4IpMFltWrIThUSgic_wwISwhDlzlfwWT_SG/s320/1July14_BaseofHook.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
and 2016:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip7GWq-C-nKg09Au8nM35xRjI01GXussQSuwVa86QQpdVdwkCLXY7JDTe_rTYqMrmbUEHFNUz1aAy5ll14vYmn0p4ISYc7TqVp24jO7lJIePVmdFWIsFDmspdyUxynz0z0PBwybmqK9yfI/s1600/1July16_BaseofHook.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip7GWq-C-nKg09Au8nM35xRjI01GXussQSuwVa86QQpdVdwkCLXY7JDTe_rTYqMrmbUEHFNUz1aAy5ll14vYmn0p4ISYc7TqVp24jO7lJIePVmdFWIsFDmspdyUxynz0z0PBwybmqK9yfI/s320/1July16_BaseofHook.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
and then 2017, in which if you focus on some of the rip rap material in the far field you can really see the beach accretion<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4gCBp_jiO9uRNUwHWL24VKp3CmpJERYS6llBnoEDyl_ju1-0YcFOidBRyf33o6yZZ2hkjt6C3oZMdbe5LBTg_GlaqmW0K94JweEl98tGaORP__WAZaMweN8eesglb6W13MHZLarHXTX5Y/s1600/23June17_BaseofHook.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4gCBp_jiO9uRNUwHWL24VKp3CmpJERYS6llBnoEDyl_ju1-0YcFOidBRyf33o6yZZ2hkjt6C3oZMdbe5LBTg_GlaqmW0K94JweEl98tGaORP__WAZaMweN8eesglb6W13MHZLarHXTX5Y/s320/23June17_BaseofHook.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
and 2018 in which we seem to see a finer beach face:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi66Dvusg1bAouJ5oGf3dosEmXa3Vstdmml2yb65bA3u5Gy6iqKF6u0GlnuYdBmJaXLiy_skYbzAgQYjfEn6DvaSZRjXjSdSe_dmq2pz-7ckpmdNR9a_L_fHnsx9eNRUGL-Njn28OM7vQc-/s1600/10July18_BaseofHook.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi66Dvusg1bAouJ5oGf3dosEmXa3Vstdmml2yb65bA3u5Gy6iqKF6u0GlnuYdBmJaXLiy_skYbzAgQYjfEn6DvaSZRjXjSdSe_dmq2pz-7ckpmdNR9a_L_fHnsx9eNRUGL-Njn28OM7vQc-/s320/10July18_BaseofHook.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
and finally this year (2019), in which overall we continue to see a relatively finer shoreline:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI5JB_3t_I6O3TrNvZ1xNVa__T9WAd-R3oRHpd9GLaSqu6adcOaU1-DyYZBDSlda3WmFoaDfn7v-yMeVOcUOdFQ_IAmizgUo9hGEEgobQz7LYNXnM3BmOOgrjTpo4OAoGyRgbwolaeaD8C/s1600/3June19_BaseofHook.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI5JB_3t_I6O3TrNvZ1xNVa__T9WAd-R3oRHpd9GLaSqu6adcOaU1-DyYZBDSlda3WmFoaDfn7v-yMeVOcUOdFQ_IAmizgUo9hGEEgobQz7LYNXnM3BmOOgrjTpo4OAoGyRgbwolaeaD8C/s320/3June19_BaseofHook.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
So lets turn our attention a bit further east, and further out on Ediz Hook. This <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/Qr8RiQvb9Kd7PJrMA" target="_blank">site sits just past the mill</a>, and just about a kilometer from the site above. The story once you get to the mill and beyond is complicated, and the evidence isn't strong. But it may be there. Here are the profile data:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk44Agx_G8G8xphXYmvZpsroRZ7fLjVpTrVmgpgikPO33MHArbK7g-GolmGoVBUS59KQ0EnC2_Q9vvCmX0Fe_fzSkyoe8Wa30MFyDkcadOYEIFjCZPOoRAUxiIGM-YnsUfmneMFhbRfkS2/s1600/ProfileEastofMill.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1600" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk44Agx_G8G8xphXYmvZpsroRZ7fLjVpTrVmgpgikPO33MHArbK7g-GolmGoVBUS59KQ0EnC2_Q9vvCmX0Fe_fzSkyoe8Wa30MFyDkcadOYEIFjCZPOoRAUxiIGM-YnsUfmneMFhbRfkS2/s400/ProfileEastofMill.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
Erosion from 2012 to 2016, then a big bump seaward by the summer of 2017 associated with a cobble nourishment project (more on that below), erosion again between 2017 and 2019, but then, critically, a movement seaward between 2018 and 2019. Lets look at the oblique photos, starting in 2014:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaQCg2BU-x0lHdYdv1Wq2OChgQG8eSgpbQTciLRMtbueZtAcuiJ1SBB2YcDr-x35NCmomp0H-_QNFUrSDTTANF3Qk4s68hyphenhyphenQ8_EWyZoZ8Rxqh1vFcFg9ESKetCKta-lnTrg0MSlitnaJp6/s1600/30June14_EastofMill.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaQCg2BU-x0lHdYdv1Wq2OChgQG8eSgpbQTciLRMtbueZtAcuiJ1SBB2YcDr-x35NCmomp0H-_QNFUrSDTTANF3Qk4s68hyphenhyphenQ8_EWyZoZ8Rxqh1vFcFg9ESKetCKta-lnTrg0MSlitnaJp6/s320/30June14_EastofMill.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
then 2016:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7xb2dfpqO_kyn1_ZFi4cWZzvfxW0iBhhMOEuU7hYtj0VE2FvuN3u92flfvvvqW7mmb2fiNMJrNW0n_KUdry6WcuzELTaiKxWCuYPSWpxn9xD8nO1ylJiIUduDei5GYRdg5MXG4wpJEb0s/s1600/1July16_EastofMill.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7xb2dfpqO_kyn1_ZFi4cWZzvfxW0iBhhMOEuU7hYtj0VE2FvuN3u92flfvvvqW7mmb2fiNMJrNW0n_KUdry6WcuzELTaiKxWCuYPSWpxn9xD8nO1ylJiIUduDei5GYRdg5MXG4wpJEb0s/s320/1July16_EastofMill.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
2017...this is the cobble nourishment:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdCydP9QzKD7GfRLia4GnJ07kPKzxCZAaRuQ2xvAVXaybkBvLaDsfzT5lr0ICz6oPN5_r9xpKFbBkAuj9krRs6xzTDaJWdg1rQARuRvkYLRAqiHQSBX4_wIN8fXzYVgXuRr3_WxT1NQ9P-/s1600/23June17_EastofMill.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdCydP9QzKD7GfRLia4GnJ07kPKzxCZAaRuQ2xvAVXaybkBvLaDsfzT5lr0ICz6oPN5_r9xpKFbBkAuj9krRs6xzTDaJWdg1rQARuRvkYLRAqiHQSBX4_wIN8fXzYVgXuRr3_WxT1NQ9P-/s320/23June17_EastofMill.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
2018...amazing how quickly that cobble is eroded from the site:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSGmkVtRaKyxFieCzwPKoHTvgoHG6yF00PeklgwBGigPBT3Dh4uDf0at2am1HC9D4M5TqpZoPxHseY6S7g1BNeYi5K63j11OzJWHjjFgOFGwTuDIF1ntpsttU9nSwlDuxlALBz_7JDhrcQ/s1600/10July18_EastofMill.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSGmkVtRaKyxFieCzwPKoHTvgoHG6yF00PeklgwBGigPBT3Dh4uDf0at2am1HC9D4M5TqpZoPxHseY6S7g1BNeYi5K63j11OzJWHjjFgOFGwTuDIF1ntpsttU9nSwlDuxlALBz_7JDhrcQ/s320/10July18_EastofMill.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
and 2019:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4qKaqIrrvlU6TATYWX_yjHU5rTDGMy_YhK6McpgMQDrshBDXD_Q20eCZkjqx308EVyeQniEXpdWiR9vvcQUGPQPlFQWUTJx7oHKAdZxds8cXaUjGpH7oE5-4c9ERaGPjgSPzHHRnhi1lw/s1600/3June19_EastofMill.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4qKaqIrrvlU6TATYWX_yjHU5rTDGMy_YhK6McpgMQDrshBDXD_Q20eCZkjqx308EVyeQniEXpdWiR9vvcQUGPQPlFQWUTJx7oHKAdZxds8cXaUjGpH7oE5-4c9ERaGPjgSPzHHRnhi1lw/s320/3June19_EastofMill.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
The story at this site is complicated by <a href="http://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2017/02/nourishment-in-washington-state-look-at.html" target="_blank">cobble nourishment, placed very 5 years or so under contract with the Army Corps of Engineers</a>. Ediz Hook was nourished in this way, and at this site, in 2011 and again in 2017. However, one of the things that seems clear to me looking at these photos and profiles though is that the nourish material erodes very rapidly after it is placed, and the beach probably continues to erode until the next nourishment. The summer of 2017 photo above, for example, is a very visual example of what this beach looks like just before nourishment - coarse and heavily eroded. So the evidence that I see here for an Elwha influence is that between 2018 and 2019 the beach didn't erode...it grew, apparently (based on the photos), because of an influx of sand and gravel. Scant, I know...but something.<br />
<br />
The final site is <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/bgjmWLk9R8JcQERZ8" target="_blank">right around the middle of Ediz Hook</a>. Here are the profile data:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRzdEw-5QYDCFKZWTOKTOeVRnf5ytJkpjFqSoelriA6hM7DqExFvc_wucnxADEC535_G-hCyaM3jFzJ2G-qZBAlHQoSz1kq8w_cGUZtdKULNvaiOrXsDYPsLzziM1XQwdibtTbpuNzm_oS/s1600/ProfileMidHook.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1600" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRzdEw-5QYDCFKZWTOKTOeVRnf5ytJkpjFqSoelriA6hM7DqExFvc_wucnxADEC535_G-hCyaM3jFzJ2G-qZBAlHQoSz1kq8w_cGUZtdKULNvaiOrXsDYPsLzziM1XQwdibtTbpuNzm_oS/s400/ProfileMidHook.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Its hard to see in this profile view, and the MHHW time-series plot isn't really working here, but you can see the influence of the 2011 nourishment in this profile, and then erosion through 2018 (interesting that there is no obvious influence of the 2017 nourishment in this profile, though there might be in the grain size)...but then a little accretion between 2018 and 2019. Here are the photos, starting with 2014:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg2fBGS5frzjtqnvu1FTDmpiBuLMMBcfFuRlB1TqkvNTDBZaqCUeGTf51w_9fggj4emRIaUUDzcGxN_C7fYqll2IO2gGt2V3vEowjEDgNg9TLe-piAYPBGj1H1f_ih8qmjnIiYRnAiT81H/s1600/25June14_MidHook.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg2fBGS5frzjtqnvu1FTDmpiBuLMMBcfFuRlB1TqkvNTDBZaqCUeGTf51w_9fggj4emRIaUUDzcGxN_C7fYqll2IO2gGt2V3vEowjEDgNg9TLe-piAYPBGj1H1f_ih8qmjnIiYRnAiT81H/s320/25June14_MidHook.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
then 2016:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCKLl3El1N0eYhMs2HjI7jeWQMnuRb5KLHSvpssqcVaQu4i2AsyKIXSPxLZaiy7NqH4-eh0HTW3UOAabRI8uJCgoI2dSwcs5UnpdpxwYdPDilxGPhCMicBiIrN6fGHs3mv9rDf1hnYYlfv/s1600/1July16_MidHook.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCKLl3El1N0eYhMs2HjI7jeWQMnuRb5KLHSvpssqcVaQu4i2AsyKIXSPxLZaiy7NqH4-eh0HTW3UOAabRI8uJCgoI2dSwcs5UnpdpxwYdPDilxGPhCMicBiIrN6fGHs3mv9rDf1hnYYlfv/s320/1July16_MidHook.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
2017:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDiRfPhYGuIiMN_PryhEJ-yz13_nmoZlmB21BLpwSgF80PWZctuipAD9n-mKg-AJHkMOS7kdXmJpv8T7wXDKFHvZU4oLD-KnZpjmSHNsfYSxY98-LNHyVXm53MIIdoUOURxdbr-NLGJ12B/s1600/7July17_MidHook.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDiRfPhYGuIiMN_PryhEJ-yz13_nmoZlmB21BLpwSgF80PWZctuipAD9n-mKg-AJHkMOS7kdXmJpv8T7wXDKFHvZU4oLD-KnZpjmSHNsfYSxY98-LNHyVXm53MIIdoUOURxdbr-NLGJ12B/s320/7July17_MidHook.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
2018:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLNTSKuXcYxx_AuPcStD3_FoLnRySA7dBhYhTdUet3pIZHqXHQUukLKCyEFPavg8OTC5jKya5b2Pn-GGOQCuedYO0091mN6X_d-cuGrxtPjVFZWaxIl95JvDeke6PWvNtpg5OCAm3fZmOd/s1600/17July18_MidHook.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLNTSKuXcYxx_AuPcStD3_FoLnRySA7dBhYhTdUet3pIZHqXHQUukLKCyEFPavg8OTC5jKya5b2Pn-GGOQCuedYO0091mN6X_d-cuGrxtPjVFZWaxIl95JvDeke6PWvNtpg5OCAm3fZmOd/s320/17July18_MidHook.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
and 2019:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaXNcMrzmKL3Kl-7aEdcayBMmRGTspD2gy4QuWc0It17vxNNsjywBSomjCne7QGDTCHfRccHuHfL6MmVnf08GrciHKLMIfHIPN74U3oxqgDD8737jiD0kamZtW6evcMxeYeYVcZEgr4ZAw/s1600/6June19_MidHook.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaXNcMrzmKL3Kl-7aEdcayBMmRGTspD2gy4QuWc0It17vxNNsjywBSomjCne7QGDTCHfRccHuHfL6MmVnf08GrciHKLMIfHIPN74U3oxqgDD8737jiD0kamZtW6evcMxeYeYVcZEgr4ZAw/s320/6June19_MidHook.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
So here the summer of 2017 stands out for how coarse the beach substrate was, perhaps reflecting alongshore transport of cobble that was placed near the mill in early 2017. That nourishment, though, based on the profile data, didn't really add too much volume to the beach. However, between 2018 and 2019, as at the last location, we see an increase in beach volume driven by sand and gravel (based on the photos).<br />
<br />
So is there an Elwha influence on Ediz Hook? I think so. I think the profile and grain size data support it, and while its conceivable that there is another source of sediment at play here (bluff erosion for example), I don't think that the <a href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/aeg/eeg/article-abstract/21/2/129/60554/Bluff-Recession-in-the-Elwha-and-Dungeness?redirectedFrom=fulltext" target="_blank">rate of erosion on the Elwha bluffs</a> accounts for what we see in these profiles. As always, looking forward to next year's survey data.<br />
<br />
<br />Ian Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15302890370852456293noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-42674927765005812702019-09-11T15:02:00.002-07:002019-09-11T15:03:12.784-07:00Beach dynamics make the West End Natural Resources News<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiur50oMCsZxUrUjuDiLzLvMObzHW03hdX7pPwegHehKBilMwl5tVO0PrTbDizjyP7WSJ7vbSjBNd97e84oPX2kJkBYMZaZMIS2IKSyHitq3QRPuhM7Byg54_teHNqg3lXKJVx1q91nKkpy/s1600/WEN_Cover.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="626" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiur50oMCsZxUrUjuDiLzLvMObzHW03hdX7pPwegHehKBilMwl5tVO0PrTbDizjyP7WSJ7vbSjBNd97e84oPX2kJkBYMZaZMIS2IKSyHitq3QRPuhM7Byg54_teHNqg3lXKJVx1q91nKkpy/s320/WEN_Cover.JPG" width="251" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
The <a href="https://jeffersoncountypublichealth.org/715/North-Pacific-Coast-Marine-Resources-Com" target="_blank">North Pacific Coast Marine Resources Committee</a> publishes a great <a href="https://jeffersoncountypublichealth.org/1157/5128/Newsletters?activeLiveTab=widgets" target="_blank">annual newsletter</a> highlighting natural resources issues and projects in the <a href="https://www.beautifulpacificnorthwest.com/north-olympic-peninsula.html" target="_blank">"West End" of the Olympic Peninsula</a>. I was given the opportunity to write up a little summary of my year-long shoreline dynamics study that I pulled off with MRC funding (along with support from <a href="https://www.nps.gov/olym/index.htm" target="_blank">Olympic National Park</a> and <a href="http://www.pencol.edu/" target="_blank">Peninsula College</a>), which is available <a href="https://jeffersoncountypublichealth.org/DocumentCenter/View/8107/2019-NPC-MRC-Newsletter_FINAL_HighRes" target="_blank">here</a> in the July 2019 edition. But I'm going to reproduce the article here...enjoy:<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Olympic Coast is an extraordinary place - one needs to
only try to find a trailhead parking spot on a summer weekend to find visceral
proof of that. People travel from around the world to visit. Drill down further though, and focus only on
the narrow boundary between the land and sea, and the shoreline of the Olympic
Coast becomes even more extraordinary still.
Most people who visit the coast with this sort of focus tend to dwell on
the diverse and colorful intertidal marine community of the rocky
shorelines. But, through the support of
the North Pacific Coast MRC and my employer, Washington Sea Grant, I’ve had the
opportunity to study the dynamics and behavior of Olympic Coast beaches for the
last year, and will describe a bit of what I’ve found.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEice5lSf0-HDAJGdHnaYvCLAa5xP2Gxln8tX-Dz9OaDtHpe5PpOTtslYn6kK_LpdMYerracr9SQgKOtJFfHD_HKQZaykheHnL1CCbpLiRykCGY7ZQOZbSjKBR3gkNCTSBvXgdzRq-smrkdF/s1600/IMG_0093.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEice5lSf0-HDAJGdHnaYvCLAa5xP2Gxln8tX-Dz9OaDtHpe5PpOTtslYn6kK_LpdMYerracr9SQgKOtJFfHD_HKQZaykheHnL1CCbpLiRykCGY7ZQOZbSjKBR3gkNCTSBvXgdzRq-smrkdF/s320/IMG_0093.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The broad sandy beach at<a href="https://goo.gl/maps/H24nb1weXxhdH25z9" target="_blank"> Kalaloch</a>, one of two study sites for this project. Photo from April 2018</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
My study focuses on two beaches – Rialto and Kalaloch –
though it is likely that the lessons I’ve learned are the same up and down the
stretch of the Olympic Coast from Pt. Grenville to the south to Cape Flattery
in the north. The beaches along this
stretch of coast are alive and dynamic, molding themselves each day to the
changing behavior of the unruly North Pacific Ocean, and the
geologically-tortured lands of the western fringe of the Olympic
Peninsula. Sandwiched between these two
restless bodies, Olympic Coast shorelines literally shape-shift in an effort to
hold a line.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUnVEQBPCCry_UDNl8tnFI6gyljVgFkPJ1JbmqZZqTBzRQZA8FlEfd8n7LgOlaoZmjZVmgP4qdxviJfGwpgI9pLHJVfdL4IqnGPyiMLSdmNmNIxAToR3hiUnTGC51Y70_6_GZ_v671zbgA/s1600/OverviewMaqp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1575" data-original-width="1191" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUnVEQBPCCry_UDNl8tnFI6gyljVgFkPJ1JbmqZZqTBzRQZA8FlEfd8n7LgOlaoZmjZVmgP4qdxviJfGwpgI9pLHJVfdL4IqnGPyiMLSdmNmNIxAToR3hiUnTGC51Y70_6_GZ_v671zbgA/s320/OverviewMaqp.png" width="241" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of the Olympic Coast, which I define as stretching from Cape Flattery to the north, and Point Grenville to the south. My two study sites, Rialto and Kalaloch Beaches, are marked on the map.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Let me start first by describing what I do on the
beach. I use survey equipment to
measure, with great accuracy, location and elevation on the beach. Collected along transects that cut across the
beach, the raw GPS data can be converted into what are called beach profiles. The figure below is an example from a single
transect at Rialto Beach. You learn something
from a profile from a single day – you can easily calculate, for example, the
slope of the beach, the width of the beach, or the elevation of the berm at the
top of the beach. All are useful for
understanding what sort of habitat a shoreline may provide. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu63R4E3bZVfKzeo4hhpp7eqByUpWw4WIUtIo0YvTUIcOdkBX8E3FuC9lPfDBninugcASs1giWqjb7AlWrjvPBGyS81fe4RFgH2nAPDJvHxFd4roXxLPel1KYnHkca1ljv8Z64BMaTX2so/s1600/RialtoProfilesExample.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1600" height="166" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu63R4E3bZVfKzeo4hhpp7eqByUpWw4WIUtIo0YvTUIcOdkBX8E3FuC9lPfDBninugcASs1giWqjb7AlWrjvPBGyS81fe4RFgH2nAPDJvHxFd4roXxLPel1KYnHkca1ljv8Z64BMaTX2so/s400/RialtoProfilesExample.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Three beach profiles, from three different days, collected at Rialto Beach, Olympic National Park. Beach profiles represent a slice through the intertidal beach</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But for me, the really interesting stories emerge by looking
at these profiles over time, which is exactly what this project focused
on. I visited Rialto and Kalaloch every
other month, developing a picture of the seasonal behavior of both beaches over
the course of a year, and was able to calculate and plot a time-series of the
position of the beach. My
take-away? Both beaches are alive, never
standing still. Rialto over that time
period moved almost 60 feet seaward between March 2018 and January 2019, and
then promptly retreated 45 feet back in just the two months following January
2019. Kalalaloch followed a similar
pattern, except its back and forth movement, first landward and then seaward,
exceeded 150 feet, and it ended the year with a final yo-yo back seaward of
over 100 feet. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX8tn7tW_v5uJTdArImcoNMkbnMEJUgqcnnYIkZ7tWdV4iQNAaOdfxaFMRNbUyLq2rWIRGIUjhaffYQekVcmdntFCzEpc7b9WN4qmmtakkcG136wRiDA-bMQgjSVMcbCmvTBVzLZJ76hwL/s1600/Annual_TimeSeries.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1458" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX8tn7tW_v5uJTdArImcoNMkbnMEJUgqcnnYIkZ7tWdV4iQNAaOdfxaFMRNbUyLq2rWIRGIUjhaffYQekVcmdntFCzEpc7b9WN4qmmtakkcG136wRiDA-bMQgjSVMcbCmvTBVzLZJ76hwL/s400/Annual_TimeSeries.png" width="363" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Time-series of beach position at both Rialto and Kalaloch beaches from approximately Spring 2018 to Spring 2019. Where the slope of the time-series line is positive the beach is accreting. Where the slope is negative the beach is eroding.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
What makes beaches dance this way? If we imagine these beaches dancing to music,
it is a complex composition. Different
factors like the range of tides, the source and supply of beach-building
sediment, the presence or absence of large wood, and even the movement of groundwater
certainly play a role in the behavior of beaches. From a sediment stand-point, for example,
both of these beaches are quite different; Kalaloch is a broad sandy beach
along a relatively straight stretch of coast, while Rialto is a narrow mixed sand
and gravel beach, positioned near a large river mouth. If I had to guess, though, these beaches are
mostly moving according to the seasonal tempo set by ocean waves. At a basic level, beaches are controlled by
the energy delivered to the shoreline by waves, which indeed does vary dramatically
over a typical season on the Olympic Coast.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtTFGf6sRWJW3Av45rmjGSSgv3w1dKQ5HmwbvwNjV-uSpTpAMt28PRp3szx7EyHNfr4H0bfi0E3sXA-Xhj_Wu5EEIJt64XL9AZC0y9z5c0goTxnZi5_Di95JpbJO812EfDVOvL_jIc1z_H/s1600/IMG_1970.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtTFGf6sRWJW3Av45rmjGSSgv3w1dKQ5HmwbvwNjV-uSpTpAMt28PRp3szx7EyHNfr4H0bfi0E3sXA-Xhj_Wu5EEIJt64XL9AZC0y9z5c0goTxnZi5_Di95JpbJO812EfDVOvL_jIc1z_H/s320/IMG_1970.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Surveying Rialto Beach during a winter storm, February 2018</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I was also able to fit the beach profiles collected over the
year into a larger study focused on long-term trends at both beaches; in
essence I’m trying to determine if the beaches of the Olympic Coast are eroding
over many years, accreting, or just staying put. The reasons for doing this may not be
obvious, but they are important. Beaches
often serve as barriers that protect human infrastructure from the astonishing
energy of the ocean. Indeed, both
Kalaloch and Rialto serve this function for things that we’ve built behind
them. Erosion of beaches in and of
itself is a natural process, but if that erosion compromises things that we
value it becomes a hazard. The outlook
for damaging erosion of shorelines all over the globe isn’t great; a rising
average sea level can prompt beach erosion, as can a change in the energy
carried by waves across the ocean’s surface, and both are observed to be
happening all over the world. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvOOWrzljcWFqXOB0sihbpWOnQwNiiCrXjdxEF42wgBqK6QQxAg1hfpGs-9qePR8pDpC-igOtiQE8GrbT4oeXMb6dGeSI1J_UC9g8WSMouwf7pXrCGQAkjNeDMoGce_IiYEhNAWXyf8hMt/s1600/KalalochTrend.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1388" data-original-width="1600" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvOOWrzljcWFqXOB0sihbpWOnQwNiiCrXjdxEF42wgBqK6QQxAg1hfpGs-9qePR8pDpC-igOtiQE8GrbT4oeXMb6dGeSI1J_UC9g8WSMouwf7pXrCGQAkjNeDMoGce_IiYEhNAWXyf8hMt/s400/KalalochTrend.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Example summer profiles from Kalaloch Beach from 2014 and 2018, and a time-series of summer beach position (bottom panel), also from Kalaloch Beach.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Profiles collected every year in the summer, limited though
they are to the last 5-6 years, start to paint a picture of a possible
long-term erosion trend at both beaches.
It is difficult to conclude too much from the erosion trends that are
emerging from my data…it is simply too short of a record to evince a great deal
of confidence. But perhaps these data
are a reminder that we live in a time of change, and these beaches that we
enjoy may be increasingly stressed by changes in the North Pacific Ocean. We, as a society, may have some hard
decisions to make regarding how to respond to that in the future.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Ian Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15302890370852456293noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-11411344626965542372019-08-09T12:48:00.001-07:002019-08-09T12:57:04.538-07:00Sea-star wasting is still at work in the sub-tidal environment of the central Strait of Juan de Fuca<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOZiAlFLZVqg4qOqxOY3YjWj2cVaKU6RMWLq3YHGqUQ310oJjGvivW9xiyJS6BakknAm0CEY2dHmpT2jD_po2iwy-2e3W3qhlkZz1tZ93V4bRbGPK6Ko4SKBwny_Vv2LPtCNfoc6c_tg9K/s1600/FixedSites2013.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1237" data-original-width="1600" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOZiAlFLZVqg4qOqxOY3YjWj2cVaKU6RMWLq3YHGqUQ310oJjGvivW9xiyJS6BakknAm0CEY2dHmpT2jD_po2iwy-2e3W3qhlkZz1tZ93V4bRbGPK6Ko4SKBwny_Vv2LPtCNfoc6c_tg9K/s320/FixedSites2013.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A map showing most of our long-term sub-tidal monitoring sites around the Elwha River Delta. We've got a few additional sites closer to <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/i6S9TvjHTwEfDeW27" target="_blank">Freshwater Bay</a>, and <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/Fv7bkTRFV7gvpKnD9" target="_blank">Green Point</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
I was able to <a href="http://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2017/08/sites-and-sounds-from-this-summers.html" target="_blank">join up again</a> this summer with a team of divers from the US Geological Survey and Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe to collect sub-tidal ecology data at a series of sites along the central Strait of Juan de Fuca. We are basically limping along a program that we started way back in 2008, that at the time was focused solely on understanding how dam removal would influence the coastal marine ecological community near the <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/QMiP9wFpuFcaWNXL9" target="_blank">Elwha River mouth</a>. We <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0187742" target="_blank">published our opus</a> on that question in 2017. Since 2017, though, we've continued each summer to cobble together just enough support to visit at least some of our sites.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtNW6agUFElMa7_OaHtx5TYL4y6BnQPR1hTGHyyUYuyCegGA3w8r_bezwFd6B6xgfQor9kgj4sVM9Dc4Bg1Gc52NoKmUhZAwx5rp5QclWmqxPnZdfjQGjdK-UvUIggkpluhfCMnZK3e_Ia/s1600/IMG_0005.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtNW6agUFElMa7_OaHtx5TYL4y6BnQPR1hTGHyyUYuyCegGA3w8r_bezwFd6B6xgfQor9kgj4sVM9Dc4Bg1Gc52NoKmUhZAwx5rp5QclWmqxPnZdfjQGjdK-UvUIggkpluhfCMnZK3e_Ia/s320/IMG_0005.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Nancy Elder (diver in far field) and Steve Rubin (diver in near field) from the US Geological Survey survey a transect at site E2 on 6 August 2019</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Our focus has broadened a bit, now, and we are developing an expanded set of goals for this work:<br />
<ol>
<li>Continue to try to understand how habitats that were altered by dam removal evolve over longer-time-scales</li>
<li>Use some of our sites that were less altered by dam removal to understand overall trends in ecological conditions, and patterns of annual variability</li>
<li>Understand patterns and trends related to loss and recovery of sea stars due to <a href="https://marine.ucsc.edu/data-products/sea-star-wasting/" target="_blank">Sea Star Wasting Syndrome (SSWS)</a></li>
</ol>
<div>
Its #3 that I want to focus on briefly here, because SSWS is still at work in these sub-tidal environments of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. How do we know? We saw it:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWAb8AHtyv1yTQ6-GtApZw1DcrKuXoPCENIObQv7Cyzc4LTOlp2GxkUP0eGPuj7JAZoA2T6OSLQJrK2VhaVwOZTvtC7KIBWq3LI-S1txPya4trQPo6qGEmAWrmo0WE9SMopiBqHf5_zgz7/s1600/IMG_0003.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWAb8AHtyv1yTQ6-GtApZw1DcrKuXoPCENIObQv7Cyzc4LTOlp2GxkUP0eGPuj7JAZoA2T6OSLQJrK2VhaVwOZTvtC7KIBWq3LI-S1txPya4trQPo6qGEmAWrmo0WE9SMopiBqHf5_zgz7/s320/IMG_0003.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The arm of a <a href="https://inverts.wallawalla.edu/Echinodermata/Class%20Asteroidea/Pycnopodia_helianthoides.html" target="_blank">Pycopodia helianthoides</a> on the sea-floor at <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/MyQ95pf6zL1qv8We7" target="_blank">Site GP1</a> on 25 July 2019. Wasting probably proceeds very quickly, so it is likely that this star was probably roaming the sea-floor looking healthy just the day before. </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
We did see a few other healthy-looking P. helianthoides across the sites that we visited. This star, for example, was at the same site on the same day:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipqHlBKUPuZtQnJpi5THNuOJWasBeWjjkJ7NMkP5o0BYwOzVZQe77ppmQhj143qTcmDpohKLjchMxqm3nFGBPGTXxLScGRZ2S9SolHT3VdcDtkTDYWEMbrInz7EsPzsOnd_-cPoTUnQINJ/s1600/IMG_0006.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipqHlBKUPuZtQnJpi5THNuOJWasBeWjjkJ7NMkP5o0BYwOzVZQe77ppmQhj143qTcmDpohKLjchMxqm3nFGBPGTXxLScGRZ2S9SolHT3VdcDtkTDYWEMbrInz7EsPzsOnd_-cPoTUnQINJ/s320/IMG_0006.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">One of the larger stars we observed at our sites this summer...maybe a bit in excess of 30cm. Site GP1, 25 July 2019.</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
But clearly their numbers are still very depressed from what we used to see prior to the onset of disease in 2014. In 2008, for example, P. helianthoides was the 5th most abundant invertebrate at our sites (see p. 148 <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2011/5120/pdf/sir20115120.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>).<br />
<br />
The star in the photo above was also notable for its relatively large size. In general, most of the P. helianthoides that we've observed at these sites since 2014 have been less than 30 cm in diameter, whereas in the past we regularly observed larger specimens:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2wah3EQJyR-vg1BmnLLTP-942Fzhc9ddPOX1e2FKt1u_cfTAlSkn1WV7-0Bok_N3ge03FCdMhI-RHJ4ZwI8dSQELc9mG0ulJgerLjwZLwe4nPLrX6DLNzDvmZpvO3dpab3iOTkclLYRHD/s1600/IMG_5000.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2wah3EQJyR-vg1BmnLLTP-942Fzhc9ddPOX1e2FKt1u_cfTAlSkn1WV7-0Bok_N3ge03FCdMhI-RHJ4ZwI8dSQELc9mG0ulJgerLjwZLwe4nPLrX6DLNzDvmZpvO3dpab3iOTkclLYRHD/s320/IMG_5000.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A large star catching a ride on the back of Steve Rubin, USGS, at a site near Freshwater Bay, 9 September 2009.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
To end on a hopeful note - I did recently observe some larger specimens at a site in Port Angeles harbor this year...the first I've seen in "the wild" since 2014. Maybe the subject of a future post.Ian Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15302890370852456293noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-80280505495855707632019-07-29T13:10:00.003-07:002019-07-29T13:10:40.658-07:00The ocean is WARM <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguEIvx8xqXD6dQ3pN4hDngpdL1q-uHDGK9vGHV_vGNW_cbhTJeGnMQ40CYZs6kRKk_O3JrUPUKu5NaUpXrkpHqDgPRyMvlBLieL20fE_793Q6oNLXA-k9rDAzuNEzb4UCA4q0XRf3lDjKo/s1600/MER_FRS_1PNMAP20050313_184533_000001492035_00285_15870_0001_RGB.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1100" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguEIvx8xqXD6dQ3pN4hDngpdL1q-uHDGK9vGHV_vGNW_cbhTJeGnMQ40CYZs6kRKk_O3JrUPUKu5NaUpXrkpHqDgPRyMvlBLieL20fE_793Q6oNLXA-k9rDAzuNEzb4UCA4q0XRf3lDjKo/s320/MER_FRS_1PNMAP20050313_184533_000001492035_00285_15870_0001_RGB.jpg" width="219" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A 2005 satellite image of Cascadia. We live in a landscape that is wedded to the ocean.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
I've got a backlog of posts on my to-do list, but not a lot of time these days. So this one will be short and to the point. The ocean lapping Washington's coast <a href="http://coastnerd.blogspot.com/2016/06/when-pigs-fly-cats-and-dogs-consort.html" target="_blank">is warm again</a>...like possibly record-setting warm. One of the longer ocean temperature records that I am able to access in its entirety is from <a href="https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46041" target="_blank">NOAA's Cape Elizabeth buoy</a>, which sits about 40 miles off of Taholah. There are a couple of ways to visualize these data, but I like this approach, where the daily average temperature observations are laid over each other by year:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVgi9z0WE3Z9jatCtsWSj4MBpjcKzxgI1b4MJfkNyUrevTt8sVtj0LiMayOVepNyTbKAFgxaweF-UDW4WkFF2fD3AYZ8JpWbVQ-OX3bIBLGYE2tZu4MrqomVduDmsfr4H7UxnuACioTbSe/s1600/CapeElizabeth.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="764" data-original-width="1600" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVgi9z0WE3Z9jatCtsWSj4MBpjcKzxgI1b4MJfkNyUrevTt8sVtj0LiMayOVepNyTbKAFgxaweF-UDW4WkFF2fD3AYZ8JpWbVQ-OX3bIBLGYE2tZu4MrqomVduDmsfr4H7UxnuACioTbSe/s400/CapeElizabeth.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Daily average temperature dating back to 1987 from NOAA's Cape Elizabeth buoy. This year's data are bolded in green.</td></tr>
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This is a nice way to get a sense for the usual range of variability in temperature at this site across the entire record. The data from this year aren't complete in this plot (that may be a problem with my download script - haven't checked) but the most recent summer data are there, and are shown with the bold green line. The period right around the 200th day of the year (19 July this year) appears to be a record. <span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Its gotten a bit cooler since then, but we are still definitely on the upper end of the range of variability at this site. Its warm.</span><br />
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By the way, I'm assuming that odd spike in the red line around the 270th day of the year is spurious...haven't checked that out yet...but based on how it looks compared to the rest of the record I don't think it is real.<br />
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The Cape Elizabeth buoy is some distance off-shore. Is this warmth evident closer to the coast? It appears so. Here are temperature data form the tide gauge in La Push. While this is a much shorter record, dating back to only 2005, it also appears as if some new temperature records were set at La Push in the middle of July:<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSZXOIui4vaKG0aIfFzQqDTDrNURdBh-FHDu2Dgy6h39YW86Kq8ehHP48Tn3jyW7MvLCGH4wcBuVi65v91u2tuUsFfMadeH6iAzff3xFhIoKJ5p9xTPXWfJphLd3ibRjDMJo9Lp1n7DglQ/s1600/LaPush.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="764" data-original-width="1600" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSZXOIui4vaKG0aIfFzQqDTDrNURdBh-FHDu2Dgy6h39YW86Kq8ehHP48Tn3jyW7MvLCGH4wcBuVi65v91u2tuUsFfMadeH6iAzff3xFhIoKJ5p9xTPXWfJphLd3ibRjDMJo9Lp1n7DglQ/s400/LaPush.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Daily average temperature dating back to 2005 from NOAA's tide gauge in La Push, Washington. This year's data are bolded in blue.</td></tr>
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Again, I'm assuming that weird spike in yellow from around the 120th day of 2007 is spurious. <br />
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This does appear to possibly be something not affecting the inland sea. Here is the same plot from Friday Harbor:<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxq7dc4Wiv4vDdp-lRNzrNyuQrD0v0ZMLfh9P7g7qY20IVpXU_G5dyO0Uwm1LA-jr3x-Xpj8XpOQsEBZwrVpeSk-gpufcJO4A7R8mRkwMe7drXPBQsx6eCoBCAX6DMvRJdV2rzsGa7SsdP/s1600/FridayHarbor.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="604" data-original-width="1600" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxq7dc4Wiv4vDdp-lRNzrNyuQrD0v0ZMLfh9P7g7qY20IVpXU_G5dyO0Uwm1LA-jr3x-Xpj8XpOQsEBZwrVpeSk-gpufcJO4A7R8mRkwMe7drXPBQsx6eCoBCAX6DMvRJdV2rzsGa7SsdP/s400/FridayHarbor.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Daily average temperature dating back to 1992 from NOAA's tide gauge in Friday Harbor. This year's data are bolded in red.</td></tr>
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It is warm...the most recent observations from Friday Harbor are almost 14C, or almost 57F (yes, that is warm for the inland sea)...but nowhere near the record highs set in the summer of 1997 (the light blue line in the plot above).<br />
<br />Ian Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15302890370852456293noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8708708316715792117.post-39606394773328546392019-06-26T12:55:00.001-07:002019-06-26T13:03:40.729-07:00A new sea level rise impact assessment hits the news...but may not be newsworthy<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZtXzZKA9P3oPyC2K-9DOtQHz695E1CJO3qq_3ke0-VL_pRT3uf82hG8qwyYQgu5Hw9J2ByWGuFB0FH3WaohRr6F0-hWABHHUeh_Rc8SrSqoYf6GCXVMQCZBnV9JYQre32VWSS0SEIVPxu/s1600/Capture.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="609" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZtXzZKA9P3oPyC2K-9DOtQHz695E1CJO3qq_3ke0-VL_pRT3uf82hG8qwyYQgu5Hw9J2ByWGuFB0FH3WaohRr6F0-hWABHHUeh_Rc8SrSqoYf6GCXVMQCZBnV9JYQre32VWSS0SEIVPxu/s320/Capture.JPG" width="243" /></a></div>
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A few days ago the Center for Climate Integrity released <a href="http://www.climatecosts2040.org/" target="_blank">quite an interesting study</a> intended to try to estimate the cost of protecting the nation's coastlines against sea level rise using shoreline armoring approaches. <a href="https://www.knkx.org/post/climate-change-will-cost-washington-24-billion-high-tide-tax-report-says" target="_blank">I was interviewed for a response</a>, as were <a href="https://crosscut.com/2019/06/report-wa-must-spend-24b-now-stave-climate-related-flooding" target="_blank">other colleagues</a> within the <a href="http://www.wacoastalnetwork.com/washington-coastal-resilience-project.html" target="_blank">Washington Coastal Resilience Project</a>, and collectively I think we pushed a few key points in response to this study:<br />
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1. On the plus side: The overall benefit of studies like this, from my standpoint, is to both remind us that there are impacts to things we care about from sea level rise, and to come up with comparative cost/impact estimates for sea level rise across some area of interest (the United States, Washington State, etc.). Put another way, studies like this can provide us with ways to prioritize different adaptation actions over some area we care about. An example of a similar study is <a href="https://www.zillow.com/research/climate-change-underwater-homes-2-16928/" target="_blank">Zillow's real estate exposure analysis analysis</a> from a few year's ago. I didn't look at Zillow's analysis as a real prediction of real estate impacts, but I DID see it as a useful way to evaluate relative vulnerability to sea level rise across the country, and across Washington State. That is useful.<br />
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2. Also on the plus side: They do a good job focusing on the near-term. They emphasize in their results that they are using a sea level rise scenario that is likely by 2040. That is very much within contemporary planning horizons. That is useful.<br />
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3. Now, on the negative side: This study SHOULD NOT lead anyone to imagine though that armoring is the only, or the most desirable, way to address sea level rise. Lest you imagine that we were alone in this response, my friend and colleague <a href="https://psds.wcu.edu/about/psds-staff/robert-s-young-director/" target="_blank">Rob Young </a>in North Carolina <a href="https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article231732953.html?fbclid=IwAR0w9VwMshBAvWEUG7SgSa9tm2j-MqGCK2f6iKRWy3oqVLxqaJ7rboHjwuk" target="_blank">had the same response</a>. There are a variety of possible responses to sea level rise, including adaptating vulnerable infrastructure, or pulling it back from the coast, or soft-shore armoring options, that may very well be cheaper AND more effective than traditional armoring for reducing risks from sea level rise.<br />
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3. And also, on the negative side: There may be some flaws in this study. I didn't outright say this in my interview, mostly because at the time I had barely had a chance to review the report. But now that I've had a chance to dig into it a bit more I can't really figure out where they got the numbers they did. Setting aside the question of how accurate the dollar values are, this also compromises the usefulness of this study as a way to assess relative vulnerability along the coast. To be clear, <a href="http://www.climatecosts2040.org/files/ClimateCosts2040_Report-v5.pdf" target="_blank">the methods they outline seem sound</a>...but let me illustrate my concerns.<br />
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Here is a map of the contemporary Mean High High Water shoreline of Port Angeles, snipped from the <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slr.html" target="_blank">NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer</a>:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGYO-AjYCMQWrFFfNGUBsSbCp47ED8MEisAoGR-BPO3IP5N1h7BqJX5vo7uxtoYhwfFgG2HWi7Y1bII7I870bnIi82liUcZnAVkZ-J51otYkq4vmfs1JP50CGeTWa15JlUoC9TSHtnJKW4/s1600/PA_MHHW.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="1600" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGYO-AjYCMQWrFFfNGUBsSbCp47ED8MEisAoGR-BPO3IP5N1h7BqJX5vo7uxtoYhwfFgG2HWi7Y1bII7I870bnIi82liUcZnAVkZ-J51otYkq4vmfs1JP50CGeTWa15JlUoC9TSHtnJKW4/s400/PA_MHHW.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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So the blue areas are those that are currently flooded at the current average high tide. I chose Port Angeles to focus on for two reasons: First, this is where I live, so I know the shoreline really well. Second, Port Angeles pops out in their analysis as <a href="http://www.climatecosts2040.org/costs/washington" target="_blank">one of the most exposed communities on Washington's coast</a>, requiring <a href="http://www.climatecosts2040.org/costs/washington-port-angeles" target="_blank">15 miles of seawalls to provide protection by 2040</a>, under the scenario that they considered.<br />
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Okay, so lets dig into that a bit. First, 15 miles is a lot. Measuring the length of shorelines is hard and you get different numbers doing it different ways. BUT, I did a quick and dirty assessment of the TOTAL shoreline length for the city of Port Angeles using Google Earth and came up with...12.5 miles. Total:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7SKlOhFZ0_PgAzajUT532W3XZiwItYcTCjibl8pzEmCcUFiqXEu7Y-QqgpK5KuFJwdIhtUsikcBkaW6a4Ddnw2-qt8JbkPMC9Qb-dVxXOw9hJfuNIM1oHLS3vxrnENPHM2_chRMirg9BU/s1600/ShorelineLength_PA.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="637" data-original-width="1127" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7SKlOhFZ0_PgAzajUT532W3XZiwItYcTCjibl8pzEmCcUFiqXEu7Y-QqgpK5KuFJwdIhtUsikcBkaW6a4Ddnw2-qt8JbkPMC9Qb-dVxXOw9hJfuNIM1oHLS3vxrnENPHM2_chRMirg9BU/s400/ShorelineLength_PA.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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I don't get all of the tiny little wiggles and such, but I do include the bluff backed shoreline to the east of Port Angeles. So at first blush 15 miles of seawall "required" by 2040 seems quite a lot. .<br />
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I also mapped, again using the NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer, their chosen scenario for their analysis, a 50th percentile sea level rise projection for 2040 under RCP 4.5 (<a href="http://www.wacoastalnetwork.com/files/theme/wcrp/mapdata/RSLProjections_Lat48.1N_Long123.4W.xlsx" target="_blank">I came up with 5 inches</a>) and a <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/est/curves.shtml?stnid=9444090" target="_blank">1-year return frequency storm surge event (1.5 feet)</a> Here is the map:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvw0chJNzL7dqS-BmclAqiPV9gguJu7tvw9pefsdDrSggW-CMgHvQEhsXPUGB-p5tTlEcy8FJA9e1f1VhcWhOBzEjCXazInBN2JIbtwllZQShIxqvIGLQhtrVCPXET7JJr-U9tSOfii6xw/s1600/PA_Plus2.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="847" data-original-width="1600" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvw0chJNzL7dqS-BmclAqiPV9gguJu7tvw9pefsdDrSggW-CMgHvQEhsXPUGB-p5tTlEcy8FJA9e1f1VhcWhOBzEjCXazInBN2JIbtwllZQShIxqvIGLQhtrVCPXET7JJr-U9tSOfii6xw/s400/PA_Plus2.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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Compare this carefully with the map above and look for differences. See any? There are a few but they are VERY slight. There is a good physical reason for this...we have a steep shoreline, and we already get plenty of events the push water 2 feet above MHHW. As a consequence, there isn't much built in that zone. How did their model translate this into a change into a changed flood exposure that "requires" armoring the entire coast of Port Angeles? <br />
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Before I look to a study like this as a useful way to assess relative vulnerability to sea level rise on Washington's coast I have to understand that.<br />
<br />Ian Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15302890370852456293noreply@blogger.com1